Predictions / Football / Greece. Super League 1 / Kalamata vs Volos NFC

Prediction Audit: Kalamata vs Volos NFC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kalamata Kalamata
Sep 13, 2026 - 15:00
3 1.18
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 56%
Volos NFC Volos NFC

The model missed the final outcome (Kalamata win 3–1).

The model had projected Volos NFC at 36.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Volos NFC Kalamata ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Kalamata higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Kalamata -5.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kalamata 32.9% 38.1% -5.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 30.3% 30.0% +0.3 pp Aligned
Volos NFC 36.8% 31.9% +4.9 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Kalamata's win probability at 38.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 5.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Kalamata win 3–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Kalamata. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Volos NFC; match finished Kalamata

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Volos NFC by 5.2 percentage points (42.0% vs model 36.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 13, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kalamata 32.9% · Draw 30.3% · Volos NFC 36.8%
    • xG · Kalamata 1.18 — Volos NFC 1.31
  2. Sep 13, 2026 · 14:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kalamata 2.53 · Draw 3.21 · Volos NFC 3.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Kalamata 38.1% · Draw 30.0% · Volos NFC 31.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 13, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Kalamata 2.53 · Draw 3.21 · Volos NFC 3.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Kalamata 38.1% · Draw 30.0% · Volos NFC 31.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 13, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Kalamata win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 25/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7447873

Closing Odds 2.53
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kalamata win · Kalamata 3–1 Volos NFC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Super League 1
  • Fixture: Kalamata vs Volos NFC
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Kalamata 1.18 — Volos NFC 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.49)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League 1 Super League 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Panathinaikos 5 5 0 0 15
2 PAOK 5 4 0 1 12
3 AEK Athens FC 5 3 2 0 11
4 OFI 5 3 1 1 10
5 Olympiakos Piraeus 5 3 1 1 10
6 Panetolikos 5 3 0 2 9
7 Aris Thessalonikis 5 2 1 2 7
8 Iraklis 1908 5 1 3 1 6
9 Kifisia 5 1 2 2 5
10 Kalamata 5 1 1 3 4
11 Atromitos 5 0 2 3 2
12 Asteras Tripolis 5 0 2 3 2
13 Volos NFC 5 0 2 3 2
14 Levadiakos 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 AEK Athens FC 5 13 3 +10 11
2 Panathinaikos 5 12 2 +10 15
3 PAOK 5 12 5 +7 12
4 OFI 5 8 4 +4 10
5 Panetolikos 5 8 7 +1 9
6 Kalamata 5 6 8 -2 4
7 Aris Thessalonikis 5 5 10 -5 7
8 Olympiakos Piraeus 5 4 2 +2 10
9 Iraklis 1908 5 4 6 -2 6
10 Kifisia 5 4 7 -3 5
11 Atromitos 5 4 7 -3 2
12 Asteras Tripolis 5 4 9 -5 2
13 Volos NFC 5 4 9 -5 2
14 Levadiakos 5 0 9 -9 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Olympiakos Piraeus 5 4.9 1.1 +3.8 10
2 Aris Thessalonikis 5 4.5 2.8 +1.7 7
3 Panathinaikos 5 3.9 2.2 +1.7 15
4 Kifisia 5 2.2 1.1 +1.1 5
5 AEK Athens FC 5 2.5 1.5 +1.0 11
6 Panetolikos 5 3.0 2.2 +0.8 9
7 PAOK 5 4.7 4.3 +0.4 12
8 Asteras Tripolis 5 3.0 3.1 -0.1 2
9 OFI 5 3.4 3.7 -0.3 10
10 Volos NFC 5 0.8 1.4 -0.6 2
11 Iraklis 1908 5 1.3 3.0 -1.7 6
12 Levadiakos 5 1.6 3.4 -1.8 1
13 Kalamata 5 2.9 5.4 -2.5 4
14 Atromitos 5 1.7 5.1 -3.4 2