Prediction Audit: Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kalamata

Aug 22, 2026 - 17:00

2 1.33

3 1.27

xG Accuracy: 52%

Aris Thessalonikis

The model missed the final outcome (Aris Thessalonikis win 2–3).

The model had projected Kalamata at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Kalamata Aris Thessalonikis ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Kalamata	36.6%	28.5%	+8.1 pp	Model Higher
Draw	29.6%	32.3%	-2.7 pp	Aligned
Aris Thessalonikis	33.8%	39.2%	-5.4 pp	Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Kalamata's win probability at 36.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.5%, a difference of 8.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Aris Thessalonikis win 2–3.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Kalamata.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
1X2: model leaned Kalamata; match finished Aris Thessalonikis

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Kalamata by 8.1 percentage points (28.5% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 22, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kalamata 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Aris Thessalonikis 33.8%
- xG · Kalamata 1.33 — Aris Thessalonikis 1.27
Aug 22, 2026 · 16:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Kalamata 3.38 · Draw 2.98 · Aris Thessalonikis 2.46
- Implied 1X2 · Kalamata 28.5% · Draw 32.3% · Aris Thessalonikis 39.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 22, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Kalamata 3.38 · Draw 2.98 · Aris Thessalonikis 2.46
- Implied 1X2 · Kalamata 28.5% · Draw 32.3% · Aris Thessalonikis 39.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 22, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Aris Thessalonikis win · 2–3
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 20/100

Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 02:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4239144

Closing Odds 3.38

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Aris Thessalonikis win · Kalamata 2–3 Aris Thessalonikis

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Super League 1
Fixture: Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis
Kickoff: 2026-08-22 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): Kalamata 1.33 — Aris Thessalonikis 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Panathinaikos	5	5	0	0	15
2	PAOK	5	4	0	1	12
3	AEK Athens FC	5	3	2	0	11
4	OFI	5	3	1	1	10
5	Olympiakos Piraeus	5	3	1	1	10
6	Panetolikos	5	3	0	2	9
7	Aris Thessalonikis	5	2	1	2	7
8	Iraklis 1908	5	1	3	1	6
9	Kifisia	5	1	2	2	5
10	Kalamata	5	1	1	3	4
11	Atromitos	5	0	2	3	2
12	Asteras Tripolis	5	0	2	3	2
13	Volos NFC	5	0	2	3	2
14	Levadiakos	5	0	1	4	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	AEK Athens FC	5	13	3	+10	11
2	Panathinaikos	5	12	2	+10	15
3	PAOK	5	12	5	+7	12
4	OFI	5	8	4	+4	10
5	Panetolikos	5	8	7	+1	9
6	Kalamata	5	6	8	-2	4
7	Aris Thessalonikis	5	5	10	-5	7
8	Olympiakos Piraeus	5	4	2	+2	10
9	Iraklis 1908	5	4	6	-2	6
10	Kifisia	5	4	7	-3	5
11	Atromitos	5	4	7	-3	2
12	Asteras Tripolis	5	4	9	-5	2
13	Volos NFC	5	4	9	-5	2
14	Levadiakos	5	0	9	-9	1

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Olympiakos Piraeus	5	4.9	1.1	+3.8	10
2	Aris Thessalonikis	5	4.5	2.8	+1.7	7
3	Panathinaikos	5	3.9	2.2	+1.7	15
4	Kifisia	5	2.2	1.1	+1.1	5
5	AEK Athens FC	5	2.5	1.5	+1.0	11
6	Panetolikos	5	3.0	2.2	+0.8	9
7	PAOK	5	4.7	4.3	+0.4	12
8	Asteras Tripolis	5	3.0	3.1	-0.1	2
9	OFI	5	3.4	3.7	-0.3	10
10	Volos NFC	5	0.8	1.4	-0.6	2
11	Iraklis 1908	5	1.3	3.0	-1.7	6
12	Levadiakos	5	1.6	3.4	-1.8	1
13	Kalamata	5	2.9	5.4	-2.5	4
14	Atromitos	5	1.7	5.1	-3.4	2