Predictions / Football / Germany. Frauen Bundesliga / VfL Wolfsburg W vs Werder Bremen W

Prediction Audit: VfL Wolfsburg W vs Werder Bremen W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

VfL Wolfsburg W VfL Wolfsburg W
Sep 06, 2026 - 12:00
3 0.93
2 0.87
xG Accuracy: 42%
Werder Bremen W Werder Bremen W

The model missed the final outcome (VfL Wolfsburg W win 3–2).

The model had projected Draw at 36.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Draw VfL Wolfsburg W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices VfL Wolfsburg W higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: VfL Wolfsburg W -34.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
VfL Wolfsburg W 33.5% 67.8% -34.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 36.3% 17.8% +18.5 pp Model Edge
Werder Bremen W 30.2% 14.3% +15.9 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates VfL Wolfsburg W's win probability at 67.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.5%, a difference of 34.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was VfL Wolfsburg W win 3–2.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Draw by 34.4 percentage points (70.7% vs model 36.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 19:16 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · VfL Wolfsburg W 33.4% · Draw 36.4% · Werder Bremen W 30.2%
    • xG · VfL Wolfsburg W 0.93 — Werder Bremen W 0.87
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · VfL Wolfsburg W 1.37 · Draw 5.21 · Werder Bremen W 6.49
    • Implied 1X2 · VfL Wolfsburg W 67.8% · Draw 17.8% · Werder Bremen W 14.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · VfL Wolfsburg W 1.37 · Draw 5.21 · Werder Bremen W 6.49
    • Implied 1X2 · VfL Wolfsburg W 67.8% · Draw 17.8% · Werder Bremen W 14.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result VfL Wolfsburg W win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 32/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (34 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 01:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6328106

Closing Odds 1.37
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result VfL Wolfsburg W win · VfL Wolfsburg W 3–2 Werder Bremen W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Draw; market prices VfL Wolfsburg W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: VfL Wolfsburg W 0.93 xG vs Werder Bremen W 0.87 → Draw 36.3%
  • Market: VfL Wolfsburg W ~17.8% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Frauen Bundesliga Frauen Bundesliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Bayern Munich W 5 5 0 0 15
2 Eintracht Frankfurt W 5 4 1 0 13
3 VfL Wolfsburg W 5 4 0 1 12
4 Werder Bremen W 5 3 1 1 10
5 FC Koln W 5 3 0 2 9
6 Bayer Leverkusen W 5 3 0 2 9
7 Stuttgart 5 2 2 1 8
8 SC Freiburg W 5 2 1 2 7
9 Hamburger SV W 5 1 2 2 5
10 RB Leipzig W 5 1 1 3 4
11 1899 Hoffenheim W 5 1 0 4 3
12 Union Berlin W 5 1 0 4 3
13 Nürnberg 5 0 2 3 2
14 Mainz 05 5 0 0 5 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bayern Munich W 5 18 6 +12 15
2 VfL Wolfsburg W 5 16 7 +9 12
3 Eintracht Frankfurt W 5 11 5 +6 13
4 FC Koln W 5 10 7 +3 9
5 Bayer Leverkusen W 5 9 7 +2 9
6 Werder Bremen W 5 8 5 +3 10
7 Hamburger SV W 5 8 6 +2 5
8 Stuttgart 5 8 8 0 8
9 Nürnberg 5 8 19 -11 2
10 SC Freiburg W 5 7 7 0 7
11 1899 Hoffenheim W 5 6 10 -4 3
12 RB Leipzig W 5 5 9 -4 4
13 Union Berlin W 5 4 11 -7 3
14 Mainz 05 5 3 14 -11 0
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Bayern Munich W 5 3.8 0.9 +2.9 15
2 Union Berlin W 5 0.8 1.0 -0.2 3
3 Mainz 05 5 0.2 2.7 -2.5 0
4 Eintracht Frankfurt W 5 — — — 13
5 VfL Wolfsburg W 5 — — — 12
6 Werder Bremen W 5 — — — 10
7 FC Koln W 5 — — — 9
8 Bayer Leverkusen W 5 — — — 9
9 Stuttgart 5 — — — 8
10 SC Freiburg W 5 — — — 7
11 Hamburger SV W 5 — — — 5
12 RB Leipzig W 5 — — — 4
13 1899 Hoffenheim W 5 — — — 3
14 Nürnberg 5 — — — 2
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