AI correctly predicted the Bayern Munich W win.
The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Bayern Munich W Bayern Munich W ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich W | 60.3% | 90.2% | -29.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 24.6% | 5.3% | +19.3 pp | Model Edge |
| SC Freiburg W | 15.1% | 4.4% | +10.7 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Bayern Munich W's win probability at 90.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 60.3%, a difference of 29.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Bayern Munich W win 4–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Bayern Munich W attacking xG significantly stronger (1.09 vs 0.71)
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Bayern Munich W higher (90.2% vs model 60.3%, 29.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Bayern Munich W win 4–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 19:26 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Bayern Munich W 60.3% · Draw 24.6% · SC Freiburg W 15.1%
- xG · Bayern Munich W 1.09 — SC Freiburg W 0.71
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Bayern Munich W 1.03 · Draw 17.37 · SC Freiburg W 21.13
- Implied 1X2 · Bayern Munich W 90.2% · Draw 5.3% · SC Freiburg W 4.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Bayern Munich W 1.03 · Draw 17.37 · SC Freiburg W 21.13
- Implied 1X2 · Bayern Munich W 90.2% · Draw 5.3% · SC Freiburg W 4.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Bayern Munich W win · 4–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (30 pp)
- Moderate model lean
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore More Predictions Content
Get Premium Predictions for Bayern Munich W & SC Freiburg W!
Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.
Subscribe Now
Frauen Bundesliga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich W | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Eintracht Frankfurt W | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg W | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Werder Bremen W | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | FC Koln W | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen W | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | SC Freiburg W | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Hamburger SV W | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | RB Leipzig W | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | 1899 Hoffenheim W | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 12 | Union Berlin W | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 13 | Nürnberg | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 14 | Mainz 05 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich W | 5 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 15 |
| 2 | VfL Wolfsburg W | 5 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt W | 5 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 13 |
| 4 | FC Koln W | 5 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 9 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen W | 5 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 9 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen W | 5 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 | Hamburger SV W | 5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 5 |
| 8 | Stuttgart | 5 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nürnberg | 5 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 2 |
| 10 | SC Freiburg W | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | 1899 Hoffenheim W | 5 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 | RB Leipzig W | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
| 13 | Union Berlin W | 5 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 |
| 14 | Mainz 05 | 5 | 3 | 14 | -11 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich W | 5 | 3.8 | 0.9 | +2.9 | 15 |
| 2 | Union Berlin W | 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | -0.2 | 3 |
| 3 | Mainz 05 | 5 | 0.2 | 2.7 | -2.5 | 0 |
| 4 | Eintracht Frankfurt W | 5 | — | — | — | 13 |
| 5 | VfL Wolfsburg W | 5 | — | — | — | 12 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen W | 5 | — | — | — | 10 |
| 7 | FC Koln W | 5 | — | — | — | 9 |
| 8 | Bayer Leverkusen W | 5 | — | — | — | 9 |
| 9 | Stuttgart | 5 | — | — | — | 8 |
| 10 | SC Freiburg W | 5 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV W | 5 | — | — | — | 5 |
| 12 | RB Leipzig W | 5 | — | — | — | 4 |
| 13 | 1899 Hoffenheim W | 5 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 14 | Nürnberg | 5 | — | — | — | 2 |
