AI correctly predicted the Bayern Munich W win.
The match finished 1–4, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Bayern Munich W Bayern Munich W ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-4 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin W | 24.1% | 8.2% | +15.9 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 28.6% | 12.6% | +16.0 pp | Model Edge |
| Bayern Munich W | 47.3% | 79.2% | -31.9 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Bayern Munich W's win probability at 79.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 47.3%, a difference of 31.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Bayern Munich W win 1–4).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Bayern Munich W attacking xG significantly stronger (1.55 vs 1.05)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Bayern Munich W higher (79.2% vs model 47.3%, 31.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Bayern Munich W win 1–4).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 16:19 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Union Berlin W 24.1% · Draw 28.5% · Bayern Munich W 47.3%
- xG · Union Berlin W 1.05 — Bayern Munich W 1.55
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 15:49 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Union Berlin W 11.22 · Draw 7.29 · Bayern Munich W 1.16
- Implied 1X2 · Union Berlin W 8.2% · Draw 12.6% · Bayern Munich W 79.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 16:19 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Union Berlin W 11.22 · Draw 7.29 · Bayern Munich W 1.16
- Implied 1X2 · Union Berlin W 8.2% · Draw 12.6% · Bayern Munich W 79.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 16:20 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Bayern Munich W win · 1–4
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (32 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Frauen Bundesliga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich W | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Eintracht Frankfurt W | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg W | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Werder Bremen W | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | FC Koln W | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen W | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | SC Freiburg W | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Hamburger SV W | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | RB Leipzig W | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | 1899 Hoffenheim W | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 12 | Union Berlin W | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 13 | Nürnberg | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 14 | Mainz 05 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich W | 5 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 15 |
| 2 | VfL Wolfsburg W | 5 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt W | 5 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 13 |
| 4 | FC Koln W | 5 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 9 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen W | 5 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 9 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen W | 5 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 | Hamburger SV W | 5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 5 |
| 8 | Stuttgart | 5 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nürnberg | 5 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 2 |
| 10 | SC Freiburg W | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | 1899 Hoffenheim W | 5 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 | RB Leipzig W | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
| 13 | Union Berlin W | 5 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 |
| 14 | Mainz 05 | 5 | 3 | 14 | -11 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich W | 5 | 3.8 | 0.9 | +2.9 | 15 |
| 2 | Union Berlin W | 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | -0.2 | 3 |
| 3 | Mainz 05 | 5 | 0.2 | 2.7 | -2.5 | 0 |
| 4 | Eintracht Frankfurt W | 5 | — | — | — | 13 |
| 5 | VfL Wolfsburg W | 5 | — | — | — | 12 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen W | 5 | — | — | — | 10 |
| 7 | FC Koln W | 5 | — | — | — | 9 |
| 8 | Bayer Leverkusen W | 5 | — | — | — | 9 |
| 9 | Stuttgart | 5 | — | — | — | 8 |
| 10 | SC Freiburg W | 5 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV W | 5 | — | — | — | 5 |
| 12 | RB Leipzig W | 5 | — | — | — | 4 |
| 13 | 1899 Hoffenheim W | 5 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 14 | Nürnberg | 5 | — | — | — | 2 |
