Predictions / Football / Ukraine. Druha Liga / SC Poltava 2 vs Atlet

Prediction Audit: SC Poltava 2 vs Atlet Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

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SC Poltava 2
Sep 21, 2026 - 09:00
0 1.35
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 43%
Atlet Atlet

The model missed the final outcome (Atlet win 0–3).

The model had projected SC Poltava 2 at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 SC Poltava 2 Atlet ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Atlet win 0–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 15, 2026 · 02:21 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · SC Poltava 2 1.35 — Atlet 1.25
  2. Sep 21, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Atlet win · 0–3
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 15, 2026 · 02:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8835244

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Atlet win · SC Poltava 2 0–3 Atlet
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Druha Liga
  • Fixture: SC Poltava 2 vs Atlet
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-21 09:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): SC Poltava 2 1.35 — Atlet 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Druha Liga Druha Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Bratslav Vinnytsia 7 5 2 0 17
2 Nyva Vinnytsya 7 4 2 1 14
3 Dnister Zalishchyky 8 4 2 2 14
4 Podillya Khmelnytskyi 7 4 1 2 13
5 Nyva Ternopil II 7 3 0 4 9
6 Vilkhivtsi 7 2 2 3 8
7 Skala 1911 Stryi 7 2 1 4 7
8 Dinaz Vyshhorod 7 0 4 3 4
9 Ruh Lviv 7 1 0 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bratslav Vinnytsia 7 17 5 +12 17
2 Dnister Zalishchyky 8 16 13 +3 14
3 Podillya Khmelnytskyi 7 14 12 +2 13
4 Nyva Vinnytsya 7 12 6 +6 14
5 Ruh Lviv 7 11 13 -2 3
6 Dinaz Vyshhorod 7 10 17 -7 4
7 Vilkhivtsi 7 9 12 -3 8
8 Nyva Ternopil II 7 7 13 -6 9
9 Skala 1911 Stryi 7 6 11 -5 7
Druha Liga Ukraine. Druha Liga Predictions