AI correctly predicted the Ruh Lviv win.
The match finished 2–6, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Ruh Lviv Ruh Lviv ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-6 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinaz Vyshhorod | 28.4% | 14.9% | +13.5 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.3% | 17.9% | +11.4 pp | Model Edge |
| Ruh Lviv | 42.4% | 67.2% | -24.9 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Ruh Lviv's win probability at 67.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.4%, a difference of 24.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Ruh Lviv win 2–6).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Ruh Lviv higher (67.2% vs model 42.4%, 24.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Ruh Lviv win 2–6).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Dinaz Vyshhorod 28.4% · Draw 29.2% · Ruh Lviv 42.4%
- xG · Dinaz Vyshhorod 1.15 — Ruh Lviv 1.45
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 11:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Dinaz Vyshhorod 6.00 · Draw 5.00 · Ruh Lviv 1.33
- Implied 1X2 · Dinaz Vyshhorod 14.9% · Draw 17.9% · Ruh Lviv 67.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Dinaz Vyshhorod 6.00 · Draw 5.00 · Ruh Lviv 1.33
- Implied 1X2 · Dinaz Vyshhorod 14.9% · Draw 17.9% · Ruh Lviv 67.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ruh Lviv win · 2–6
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (25 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Druha Liga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bratslav Vinnytsia | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 2 | Nyva Vinnytsya | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 3 | Dnister Zalishchyky | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 4 | Podillya Khmelnytskyi | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Nyva Ternopil II | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Vilkhivtsi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | Skala 1911 Stryi | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 8 | Dinaz Vyshhorod | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | Ruh Lviv | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bratslav Vinnytsia | 7 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 17 |
| 2 | Dnister Zalishchyky | 8 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 14 |
| 3 | Podillya Khmelnytskyi | 7 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 13 |
| 4 | Nyva Vinnytsya | 7 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 14 |
| 5 | Ruh Lviv | 7 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 3 |
| 6 | Dinaz Vyshhorod | 7 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 4 |
| 7 | Vilkhivtsi | 7 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 8 |
| 8 | Nyva Ternopil II | 7 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 9 |
| 9 | Skala 1911 Stryi | 7 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
