Predictions / Football / Mexico. Liga MX U21 / Puebla U21 vs Atlante U21

Prediction Audit: Puebla U21 vs Atlante U21 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

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Puebla U21
Sep 18, 2026 - 15:00
0(4) 1.26
0(5) 1.34
xG Accuracy: 49%
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Atlante U21

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Atlante U21 at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Atlante U21 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Puebla U21 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Puebla U21 -16.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Puebla U21 33.3% 49.6% -16.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.8% +2.8 pp Aligned
Atlante U21 37.1% 23.6% +13.5 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Puebla U21's win probability at 49.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 16.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Puebla U21 than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Atlante U21; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Atlante U21 by 16.3 percentage points (53.4% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 18, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Puebla U21 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Atlante U21 37.0%
    • xG · Puebla U21 1.26 — Atlante U21 1.34
  2. Sep 18, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Puebla U21 1.79 · Draw 3.31 · Atlante U21 3.77
    • Implied 1X2 · Puebla U21 49.6% · Draw 26.8% · Atlante U21 23.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 18, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Puebla U21 1.79 · Draw 3.31 · Atlante U21 3.77
    • Implied 1X2 · Puebla U21 49.6% · Draw 26.8% · Atlante U21 23.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 18, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 6/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8202066

Closing Odds 1.79
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Puebla U21 0–0 Atlante U21
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga MX U21
  • Fixture: Puebla U21 vs Atlante U21
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-18 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Puebla U21 1.26 — Atlante U21 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 49.1% · Probability edge: +2.7 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga MX U21 Liga MX U21 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Toluca U21 9 8 1 0 25
2 Club Leon U21 9 8 0 1 24
3 Club Tijuana U21 10 6 1 3 19
4 Puebla U21 9 5 1 3 16
5 Cruz Azul U21 10 5 1 4 16
6 Guadalajara Chivas U21 9 5 0 4 15
7 Club America U21 9 5 0 4 15
8 Monterrey U21 9 4 1 4 13
9 Juarez U21 8 4 1 3 13
10 Atl. San Luis U21 9 4 0 5 12
11 Necaxa U21 9 4 0 5 12
12 Atlante U21 10 4 0 6 12
13 Atlas U21 10 3 1 6 10
14 UNAM Pumas U21 9 3 1 5 10
15 Santos Laguna U21 9 3 1 5 10
16 Pachuca U21 9 3 0 6 9
17 Tigres UANL U21 10 2 1 7 7
18 Queretaro U21 9 2 0 7 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Toluca U21 9 18 7 +11 25
2 Club Leon U21 9 18 9 +9 24
3 Monterrey U21 9 18 13 +5 13
4 Cruz Azul U21 10 18 15 +3 16
5 Club Tijuana U21 10 17 12 +5 19
6 Guadalajara Chivas U21 9 15 14 +1 15
7 Atl. San Luis U21 9 15 18 -3 12
8 Club America U21 9 14 13 +1 15
9 Atlante U21 10 14 20 -6 12
10 Atlas U21 10 13 12 +1 10
11 Puebla U21 9 11 7 +4 16
12 Pachuca U21 9 10 13 -3 9
13 Necaxa U21 9 10 15 -5 12
14 Queretaro U21 9 10 16 -6 6
15 Juarez U21 8 9 9 0 13
16 UNAM Pumas U21 9 9 11 -2 10
17 Tigres UANL U21 10 9 19 -10 7
18 Santos Laguna U21 9 7 12 -5 10
Liga MX U21 Mexico. Liga MX U21 Predictions