AI correctly predicted the Toluca U21 win.
The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Toluca U21 Toluca U21 ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queretaro U21 | 33.3% | 19.9% | +13.4 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.0% | +6.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Toluca U21 | 37.1% | 57.1% | -20.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Toluca U21's win probability at 57.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 20.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Toluca U21 win 0–2).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Toluca U21 higher (57.1% vs model 37.1%, 20.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Toluca U21 win 0–2).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Queretaro U21 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Toluca U21 37.0%
- xG · Queretaro U21 1.26 — Toluca U21 1.34
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 14:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Queretaro U21 4.50 · Draw 3.90 · Toluca U21 1.57
- Implied 1X2 · Queretaro U21 19.9% · Draw 23.0% · Toluca U21 57.1%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Queretaro U21 4.50 · Draw 3.90 · Toluca U21 1.57
- Implied 1X2 · Queretaro U21 19.9% · Draw 23.0% · Toluca U21 57.1%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Toluca U21 win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (20 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga MX U21 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca U21 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| 2 | Club Leon U21 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 24 |
| 3 | Club Tijuana U21 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Puebla U21 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Cruz Azul U21 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Guadalajara Chivas U21 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 7 | Club America U21 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 8 | Monterrey U21 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Juarez U21 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Atl. San Luis U21 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 11 | Necaxa U21 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 12 | Atlante U21 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 13 | Atlas U21 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 14 | UNAM Pumas U21 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 15 | Santos Laguna U21 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 16 | Pachuca U21 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 17 | Tigres UANL U21 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 18 | Queretaro U21 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca U21 | 9 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 25 |
| 2 | Club Leon U21 | 9 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 24 |
| 3 | Monterrey U21 | 9 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul U21 | 10 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 16 |
| 5 | Club Tijuana U21 | 10 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 | Guadalajara Chivas U21 | 9 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 |
| 7 | Atl. San Luis U21 | 9 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 12 |
| 8 | Club America U21 | 9 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 | Atlante U21 | 10 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 12 |
| 10 | Atlas U21 | 10 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 10 |
| 11 | Puebla U21 | 9 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 16 |
| 12 | Pachuca U21 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Necaxa U21 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Queretaro U21 | 9 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Juarez U21 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 16 | UNAM Pumas U21 | 9 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
| 17 | Tigres UANL U21 | 10 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 7 |
| 18 | Santos Laguna U21 | 9 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 10 |
