Predictions / Football / Mexico. Liga MX U21 / Juarez U21 vs Puebla U21

Prediction Audit: Juarez U21 vs Puebla U21 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

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Juarez U21
Jul 17, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.40
2 1.20
xG Accuracy: 55%
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Puebla U21

The model missed the final outcome (Puebla U21 win 0–2).

The model had projected Juarez U21 at 46.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Juarez U21 Puebla U21 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Puebla U21 considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Puebla U21 +7.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Juarez U21 46.0% 53.8% -7.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 27.8% 27.9% -0.1 pp Aligned
Puebla U21 26.1% 18.4% +7.8 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Puebla U21's win probability at 26.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 18.4%, a difference of 7.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Puebla U21 win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Puebla U21.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Juarez U21; match finished Puebla U21

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Juarez U21 by 7.8 percentage points (38.2% vs model 46.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 17, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Juarez U21 46.0% · Draw 27.8% · Puebla U21 26.1%
    • xG · Juarez U21 1.40 — Puebla U21 1.20
  2. Jul 17, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Juarez U21 1.65 · Draw 3.18 · Puebla U21 4.83
    • Implied 1X2 · Juarez U21 53.8% · Draw 27.9% · Puebla U21 18.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 17, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Juarez U21 1.65 · Draw 3.18 · Puebla U21 4.83
    • Implied 1X2 · Juarez U21 53.8% · Draw 27.9% · Puebla U21 18.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 17, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Puebla U21 win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 61/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1459224

Closing Odds 4.83
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Puebla U21 win · Juarez U21 0–2 Puebla U21
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga MX U21
  • Fixture: Juarez U21 vs Puebla U21
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-17 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 46.0% · Draw 27.8% · Away 26.2%
  • xG (showing): Juarez U21 1.4 — Puebla U21 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga MX U21 Liga MX U21 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Toluca U21 9 8 1 0 25
2 Club Leon U21 9 8 0 1 24
3 Club Tijuana U21 10 6 1 3 19
4 Puebla U21 9 5 1 3 16
5 Cruz Azul U21 10 5 1 4 16
6 Guadalajara Chivas U21 9 5 0 4 15
7 Club America U21 9 5 0 4 15
8 Monterrey U21 9 4 1 4 13
9 Juarez U21 8 4 1 3 13
10 Atl. San Luis U21 9 4 0 5 12
11 Necaxa U21 9 4 0 5 12
12 Atlante U21 10 4 0 6 12
13 Atlas U21 10 3 1 6 10
14 UNAM Pumas U21 9 3 1 5 10
15 Santos Laguna U21 9 3 1 5 10
16 Pachuca U21 9 3 0 6 9
17 Tigres UANL U21 10 2 1 7 7
18 Queretaro U21 9 2 0 7 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Toluca U21 9 18 7 +11 25
2 Club Leon U21 9 18 9 +9 24
3 Monterrey U21 9 18 13 +5 13
4 Cruz Azul U21 10 18 15 +3 16
5 Club Tijuana U21 10 17 12 +5 19
6 Guadalajara Chivas U21 9 15 14 +1 15
7 Atl. San Luis U21 9 15 18 -3 12
8 Club America U21 9 14 13 +1 15
9 Atlante U21 10 14 20 -6 12
10 Atlas U21 10 13 12 +1 10
11 Puebla U21 9 11 7 +4 16
12 Pachuca U21 9 10 13 -3 9
13 Necaxa U21 9 10 15 -5 12
14 Queretaro U21 9 10 16 -6 6
15 Juarez U21 8 9 9 0 13
16 UNAM Pumas U21 9 9 11 -2 10
17 Tigres UANL U21 10 9 19 -10 7
18 Santos Laguna U21 9 7 12 -5 10
Liga MX U21 Mexico. Liga MX U21 Predictions