Predictions / Football / Latvia. Cup / BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United

Prediction Audit: BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils
Aug 14, 2026 - 15:00
3 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 58%
Ogre United Ogre United

AI correctly predicted the BFC Daugavpils win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices BFC Daugavpils higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: BFC Daugavpils -34.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
BFC Daugavpils 36.1% 70.2% -34.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 17.8% +11.9 pp Model Edge
Ogre United 34.2% 12.1% +22.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates BFC Daugavpils's win probability at 70.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 34.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (BFC Daugavpils win 3–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced BFC Daugavpils higher (70.1% vs model 36.1%, 34.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (BFC Daugavpils win 3–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 14, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · BFC Daugavpils 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Ogre United 34.2%
    • xG · BFC Daugavpils 1.32 — Ogre United 1.28
  2. Aug 14, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · BFC Daugavpils 1.28 · Draw 5.05 · Ogre United 7.44
    • Implied 1X2 · BFC Daugavpils 70.2% · Draw 17.8% · Ogre United 12.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 14, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · BFC Daugavpils 1.28 · Draw 5.05 · Ogre United 7.44
    • Implied 1X2 · BFC Daugavpils 70.2% · Draw 17.8% · Ogre United 12.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 14, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result BFC Daugavpils win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 32/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (34 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 01:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3227365

Closing Odds 1.28
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result BFC Daugavpils win · BFC Daugavpils 3–1 Ogre United
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours BFC Daugavpils; market prices BFC Daugavpils instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: BFC Daugavpils 1.32 xG vs Ogre United 1.28 → BFC Daugavpils 36.1%
  • Market: BFC Daugavpils ~70.2% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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