Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Cadiz vs Granada CF

Prediction Audit: Cadiz vs Granada CF Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cadiz Cadiz
Aug 05, 2026 - 08:00
2 1.34
0 1.26
xG Accuracy: 59%
Granada CF Granada CF

AI correctly predicted the Cadiz win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Cadiz Cadiz ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Granada CF -4.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Cadiz 37.1% 33.1% +4.0 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 29.6% +0.1 pp Aligned
Granada CF 33.3% 37.4% -4.1 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Cadiz win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Cadiz win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 05, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Cadiz 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Granada CF 33.4%
    • xG · Cadiz 1.34 — Granada CF 1.26
  2. Aug 05, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Cadiz 2.69 · Draw 3.01 · Granada CF 2.38
    • Implied 1X2 · Cadiz 33.1% · Draw 29.6% · Granada CF 37.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 05, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Cadiz 2.69 · Draw 3.01 · Granada CF 2.38
    • Implied 1X2 · Cadiz 33.1% · Draw 29.6% · Granada CF 37.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 05, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Cadiz win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 27/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 02:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2479970

Closing Odds 2.38
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Cadiz win · Cadiz 2–0 Granada CF
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Friendlies Clubs
  • Fixture: Cadiz vs Granada CF
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-05 08:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Cadiz 1.34 — Granada CF 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 26, 2026 (UTC)

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