Prediction Audit: Hekimoğlu Trabzon vs Serik Belediyespor Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hekimoğlu Trabzon

Oct 03, 2026 - 11:30

4 1.15

1 1.45

xG Accuracy: 40%

Serik Belediyespor

The model missed the final outcome (Hekimoğlu Trabzon win 4–1).

The model had projected Serik Belediyespor at 42.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Serik Belediyespor Hekimoğlu Trabzon ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Hekimoğlu Trabzon	28.4%	33.7%	-5.3 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.3%	29.1%	+0.2 pp	Aligned
Serik Belediyespor	42.4%	37.2%	+5.1 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Hekimoğlu Trabzon's win probability at 33.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 28.4%, a difference of 5.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Hekimoğlu Trabzon win 4–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Hekimoğlu Trabzon. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Serik Belediyespor by 5.3 percentage points (47.7% vs model 42.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Oct 03, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hekimoğlu Trabzon 28.4% · Draw 29.2% · Serik Belediyespor 42.4%
- xG · Hekimoğlu Trabzon 1.15 — Serik Belediyespor 1.45
Oct 03, 2026 · 11:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hekimoğlu Trabzon 2.69 · Draw 3.11 · Serik Belediyespor 2.43
- Implied 1X2 · Hekimoğlu Trabzon 33.6% · Draw 29.1% · Serik Belediyespor 37.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Oct 03, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Hekimoğlu Trabzon 2.72 · Draw 3.15 · Serik Belediyespor 2.46
- Implied 1X2 · Hekimoğlu Trabzon 33.7% · Draw 29.1% · Serik Belediyespor 37.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Oct 03, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Hekimoğlu Trabzon win · 4–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 73/100

Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 01:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11223969

Closing Odds 2.72

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Hekimoğlu Trabzon win · Hekimoğlu Trabzon 4–1 Serik Belediyespor

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 2. Lig
Fixture: Hekimoğlu Trabzon vs Serik Belediyespor
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 11:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 28.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 42.4%
xG (showing): Hekimoğlu Trabzon 1.15 — Serik Belediyespor 1.45 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 48.3% · Probability edge: +3.5 pts · Est. EV: +6.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Lig — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Muş Menderesspor	5	4	1	0	13
2	Aliağa FAŞ	5	4	0	1	12
3	Elazığspor	4	3	1	0	10
4	Menemen Belediyespor	5	3	0	2	9
5	Belediye Derincespor	4	2	2	0	8
6	Çorluspor 1947	4	2	1	1	7
7	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	5	2	1	2	7
8	Erbaaspor	5	2	1	2	7
9	Somaspor	4	2	1	1	7
10	Isparta 32 Spor	5	2	1	2	7
11	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	4	1	2	1	5
12	Şanlıurfaspor	4	1	2	1	5
13	Ankaraspor	4	1	0	3	3
14	Sebat Gençlikspor	4	0	1	3	1
15	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	4	0	0	4	0
16	Kastamonuspor 1966	4	1	0	3	0
17	Hatayspor	5	1	1	3
18	Adana Demirspor	5	1	1	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Muş Menderesspor	5	15	7	+8	13
2	Erbaaspor	5	13	12	+1	7
3	Aliağa FAŞ	5	12	9	+3	12
4	Elazığspor	4	10	1	+9	10
5	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	5	9	7	+2	7
6	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	4	9	7	+2	5
7	Çorluspor 1947	4	8	3	+5	7
8	Somaspor	4	8	7	+1	7
9	Isparta 32 Spor	5	8	8	0	7
10	Menemen Belediyespor	5	7	7	0	9
11	Belediye Derincespor	4	6	3	+3	8
12	Şanlıurfaspor	4	6	6	0	5
13	Sebat Gençlikspor	4	6	10	-4	1
14	Adana Demirspor	5	3	9	-6
15	Hatayspor	5	2	4	-2
16	Ankaraspor	4	2	6	-4	3
17	Kastamonuspor 1966	4	2	12	-10	0
18	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	4	1	9	-8	0