Prediction Audit: Erzin Spor vs Kırklarelispor Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Erzin Spor

Sep 13, 2026 - 13:00

0 1.37

1 1.23

xG Accuracy: 64%

Kırklarelispor

The model missed the final outcome (Kırklarelispor win 0–1).

The model had projected Erzin Spor at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Erzin Spor Kırklarelispor ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Erzin Spor	38.5%	33.7%	+4.8 pp	Aligned
Draw	29.6%	29.0%	+0.6 pp	Aligned
Kırklarelispor	31.9%	37.4%	-5.4 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Kırklarelispor's win probability at 37.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 5.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Kırklarelispor win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Kırklarelispor. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Erzin Spor by 5.4 percentage points (43.9% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 13, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Erzin Spor 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Kırklarelispor 31.9%
- xG · Erzin Spor 1.37 — Kırklarelispor 1.23
Sep 13, 2026 · 12:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Erzin Spor 2.72 · Draw 3.16 · Kırklarelispor 2.45
- Implied 1X2 · Erzin Spor 33.7% · Draw 29.0% · Kırklarelispor 37.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 13, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Erzin Spor 2.72 · Draw 3.16 · Kırklarelispor 2.45
- Implied 1X2 · Erzin Spor 33.7% · Draw 29.0% · Kırklarelispor 37.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 13, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Kırklarelispor win · 0–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 25/100

Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7434423

Closing Odds 2.45

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Kırklarelispor win · Erzin Spor 0–1 Kırklarelispor

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 2. Lig
Fixture: Erzin Spor vs Kırklarelispor
Kickoff: 2026-09-13 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
xG (showing): Erzin Spor 1.37 — Kırklarelispor 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.7%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Lig — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Elazığspor	3	3	0	0	9
2	Çorluspor 1947	3	2	1	0	7
3	Muş Menderesspor	3	2	1	0	7
4	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	4	2	1	1	7
5	Belediye Derincespor	3	2	1	0	7
6	Somaspor	4	2	1	1	7
7	Aliağa FAŞ	3	2	0	1	6
8	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	3	1	2	0	5
9	Şanlıurfaspor	3	1	2	0	5
10	Erbaaspor	3	1	1	1	4
11	Menemen Belediyespor	3	1	0	2	3
12	Ankaraspor	4	1	0	3	3
13	Sebat Gençlikspor	3	0	1	2	1
14	Isparta 32 Spor	3	0	1	2	1
15	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	3	0	0	3	0
16	Kastamonuspor 1966	4	1	0	3	0
17	Hatayspor	3	0	1	2
18	Adana Demirspor	3	1	1	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Muş Menderesspor	3	11	5	+6	7
2	Elazığspor	3	10	1	+9	9
3	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	4	9	6	+3	7
4	Somaspor	4	8	7	+1	7
5	Erbaaspor	3	8	8	0	4
6	Çorluspor 1947	3	7	0	+7	7
7	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	3	7	4	+3	5
8	Belediye Derincespor	3	6	3	+3	7
9	Aliağa FAŞ	3	6	6	0	6
10	Sebat Gençlikspor	3	6	9	-3	1
11	Şanlıurfaspor	3	5	4	+1	5
12	Menemen Belediyespor	3	4	7	-3	3
13	Isparta 32 Spor	3	4	7	-3	1
14	Adana Demirspor	3	3	4	-1
15	Ankaraspor	4	2	6	-4	3
16	Kastamonuspor 1966	4	2	12	-10	0
17	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	3	1	7	-6	0
18	Hatayspor	3	0	3	-3