Predictions / Football / Turkey. 2. Lig / Kahramanmaraş İstiklalsp vs Halide Edip Adıvar

Prediction Audit: Kahramanmaraş İstiklalsp vs Halide Edip Adıvar Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kahramanmaraş İstiklalsp Kahramanmaraş İstiklalsp
Sep 06, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.35
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 49%
Halide Edip Adıvar Halide Edip Adıvar

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Kahramanmaraş İstiklalsp at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leanedKahramanmaraş İstiklalsp; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 31, 2026 · 07:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG ·Kahramanmaraş İstiklalsp 1.35 — Halide Edip Adıvar 1.25
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6355252

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw ·Kahramanmaraş İstiklalsp 0–0 Halide Edip Adıvar
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 2. Lig
  • Fixture: Kahramanmaraş İstiklalsp vs Halide Edip Adıvar
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Kahramanmaraş İstiklalsp 1.35 — Halide Edip Adıvar 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Lig 2. Lig — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Muş Menderesspor 6 5 1 0 16
2 Aliağa FAŞ 6 5 0 1 15
3 Elazığspor 5 3 1 1 10
4 Çorluspor 1947 6 3 1 2 10
5 İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 6 3 1 2 10
6 Isparta 32 Spor 6 3 1 2 10
7 Belediye Derincespor 5 2 3 0 9
8 Şanlıurfaspor 6 2 3 1 9
9 Menemen Belediyespor 6 3 0 3 9
10 Erbaaspor 5 2 1 2 7
11 Somaspor 4 2 1 1 7
12 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 6 1 3 2 6
13 Ankaraspor 6 2 0 4 6
14 Kastamonuspor 1966 6 2 0 4 3
15 Sebat Gençlikspor 5 0 2 3 2
16 Arnavutköy Belediyespor 6 0 0 6 0
17 Hatayspor 5 1 1 3
18 Adana Demirspor 5 1 1 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Muş Menderesspor 6 16 7 +9 16
2 Çorluspor 1947 6 13 8 +5 10
3 Aliağa FAŞ 6 13 9 +4 15
4 Erbaaspor 5 13 12 +1 7
5 Elazığspor 5 12 4 +8 10
6 İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 6 11 8 +3 10
7 Isparta 32 Spor 6 11 10 +1 10
8 Şanlıurfaspor 6 10 9 +1 9
9 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 6 10 9 +1 6
10 Somaspor 4 8 7 +1 7
11 Belediye Derincespor 5 7 4 +3 9
12 Menemen Belediyespor 6 7 8 -1 9
13 Sebat Gençlikspor 5 7 11 -4 2
14 Ankaraspor 6 4 8 -4 6
15 Kastamonuspor 1966 6 4 14 -10 3
16 Arnavutköy Belediyespor 6 4 14 -10 0
17 Adana Demirspor 5 3 9 -6
18 Hatayspor 5 2 4 -2