Prediction Audit: Ankaragucu vs Ankara Demirspor Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ankaragucu

Sep 06, 2026 - 16:00

0 1.42

1 1.18

xG Accuracy: 64%

Ankara Demirspor

The model missed the final outcome (Ankara Demirspor win 0–1).

The model had projected Ankaragucu at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Ankaragucu Ankara Demirspor ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Ankaragucu	40.9%	57.3%	-16.4 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.4%	24.5%	+4.9 pp	Aligned
Ankara Demirspor	29.7%	18.2%	+11.5 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Ankaragucu's win probability at 57.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 16.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Ankara Demirspor win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Ankaragucu than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Ankaragucu; match finished Ankara Demirspor

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Ankaragucu by 16.4 percentage points (57.3% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 06, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ankaragucu 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Ankara Demirspor 29.6%
- xG · Ankaragucu 1.42 — Ankara Demirspor 1.18
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ankaragucu 1.60 · Draw 3.74 · Ankara Demirspor 5.05
- Implied 1X2 · Ankaragucu 57.3% · Draw 24.5% · Ankara Demirspor 18.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 06, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ankaragucu 1.60 · Draw 3.74 · Ankara Demirspor 5.05
- Implied 1X2 · Ankaragucu 57.3% · Draw 24.5% · Ankara Demirspor 18.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 06, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Ankara Demirspor win · 0–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (16 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 17/100

Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6367323

Closing Odds 1.6

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Ankara Demirspor win · Ankaragucu 0–1 Ankara Demirspor

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: 2. Lig
Fixture: Ankaragucu vs Ankara Demirspor
Kickoff: 2026-09-06 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
xG (showing): Ankaragucu 1.42 — Ankara Demirspor 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.3%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Lig — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Elazığspor	3	3	0	0	9
2	Çorluspor 1947	3	2	1	0	7
3	Muş Menderesspor	3	2	1	0	7
4	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	4	2	1	1	7
5	Belediye Derincespor	3	2	1	0	7
6	Somaspor	4	2	1	1	7
7	Aliağa FAŞ	3	2	0	1	6
8	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	3	1	2	0	5
9	Şanlıurfaspor	3	1	2	0	5
10	Erbaaspor	3	1	1	1	4
11	Menemen Belediyespor	3	1	0	2	3
12	Ankaraspor	4	1	0	3	3
13	Sebat Gençlikspor	3	0	1	2	1
14	Isparta 32 Spor	3	0	1	2	1
15	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	3	0	0	3	0
16	Kastamonuspor 1966	4	1	0	3	0
17	Hatayspor	3	0	1	2
18	Adana Demirspor	3	1	1	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Muş Menderesspor	3	11	5	+6	7
2	Elazığspor	3	10	1	+9	9
3	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	4	9	6	+3	7
4	Somaspor	4	8	7	+1	7
5	Erbaaspor	3	8	8	0	4
6	Çorluspor 1947	3	7	0	+7	7
7	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	3	7	4	+3	5
8	Belediye Derincespor	3	6	3	+3	7
9	Aliağa FAŞ	3	6	6	0	6
10	Sebat Gençlikspor	3	6	9	-3	1
11	Şanlıurfaspor	3	5	4	+1	5
12	Menemen Belediyespor	3	4	7	-3	3
13	Isparta 32 Spor	3	4	7	-3	1
14	Adana Demirspor	3	3	4	-1
15	Ankaraspor	4	2	6	-4	3
16	Kastamonuspor 1966	4	2	12	-10	0
17	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	3	1	7	-6	0
18	Hatayspor	3	0	3	-3