Predictions / Football / Turkey. 2. Lig / Kastamonuspor 1966 vs Arnavutköy Belediyespor

Prediction Audit: Kastamonuspor 1966 vs Arnavutköy Belediyespor Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kastamonuspor 1966 Kastamonuspor 1966
Oct 04, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.21
1 1.39
xG Accuracy: 72%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor Arnavutköy Belediyespor

The model missed the final outcome (Kastamonuspor 1966 win 2–1).

The model had projected Arnavutköy Belediyespor at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Arnavutköy Belediyespor Kastamonuspor 1966 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Kastamonuspor 1966 1966 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Kastamonuspor 1966 1966 -10.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kastamonuspor 1966 1966 31.0% 41.4% -10.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 28.9% +0.7 pp Aligned
Arnavutköy Belediyespor 39.5% 29.8% +9.7 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Kastamonuspor 1966 1966's win probability at 41.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 10.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Kastamonuspor 1966 win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Kastamonuspor 1966 1966 than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Arnavutköy Belediyespor; match finished Kastamonuspor 1966

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Arnavutköy Belediyespor by 10.3 percentage points (49.8% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Oct 04, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kastamonuspor 1966 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 39.5%
    • xG · Kastamonuspor 1966 1.21 — Arnavutköy Belediyespor 1.39
  2. Oct 04, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kastamonuspor 1966 2.19 · Draw 3.14 · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 3.04
    • Implied 1X2 · Kastamonuspor 1966 41.4% · Draw 28.9% · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 29.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Oct 04, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Kastamonuspor 1966 2.19 · Draw 3.14 · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 3.04
    • Implied 1X2 · Kastamonuspor 1966 41.4% · Draw 28.9% · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 29.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Oct 04, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Kastamonuspor 1966 win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 16/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11664061

Closing Odds 2.19
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kastamonuspor 1966 win · Kastamonuspor 1966 2–1 Arnavutköy Belediyespor
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 2. Lig
  • Fixture: Kastamonuspor 1966 1966 vs Arnavutköy Belediyespor
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
  • xG (showing): Kastamonuspor 1966 1966 1.21 — Arnavutköy Belediyespor 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Lig 2. Lig — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Muş Menderesspor 5 4 1 0 13
2 Aliağa FAŞ 5 4 0 1 12
3 Elazığspor 4 3 1 0 10
4 Menemen Belediyespor 5 3 0 2 9
5 Belediye Derincespor 4 2 2 0 8
6 Çorluspor 1947 4 2 1 1 7
7 İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 5 2 1 2 7
8 Erbaaspor 5 2 1 2 7
9 Somaspor 4 2 1 1 7
10 Isparta 32 Spor 5 2 1 2 7
11 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 4 1 2 1 5
12 Şanlıurfaspor 4 1 2 1 5
13 Ankaraspor 4 1 0 3 3
14 Sebat Gençlikspor 4 0 1 3 1
15 Arnavutköy Belediyespor 4 0 0 4 0
16 Kastamonuspor 1966 4 1 0 3 0
17 Hatayspor 5 1 1 3
18 Adana Demirspor 5 1 1 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Muş Menderesspor 5 15 7 +8 13
2 Erbaaspor 5 13 12 +1 7
3 Aliağa FAŞ 5 12 9 +3 12
4 Elazığspor 4 10 1 +9 10
5 İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 5 9 7 +2 7
6 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 4 9 7 +2 5
7 Çorluspor 1947 4 8 3 +5 7
8 Somaspor 4 8 7 +1 7
9 Isparta 32 Spor 5 8 8 0 7
10 Menemen Belediyespor 5 7 7 0 9
11 Belediye Derincespor 4 6 3 +3 8
12 Şanlıurfaspor 4 6 6 0 5
13 Sebat Gençlikspor 4 6 10 -4 1
14 Adana Demirspor 5 3 9 -6
15 Hatayspor 5 2 4 -2
16 Ankaraspor 4 2 6 -4 3
17 Kastamonuspor 1966 4 2 12 -10 0
18 Arnavutköy Belediyespor 4 1 9 -8 0
2. Lig Turkey. 2. Lig Predictions