Prediction Audit: Somaspor vs Muş Menderesspor Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Somaspor

Sep 20, 2026 - 13:00

1 1.16

3 1.44

xG Accuracy: 62%

Muş Menderesspor

AI correctly predicted the Muş Menderesspor win.

The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Muş Menderesspor Muş Menderesspor ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Somaspor	28.8%	18.5%	+10.3 pp	Model Edge
Draw	29.3%	21.6%	+7.7 pp	Model Higher
Muş Menderesspor	41.9%	59.9%	-18.0 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Muş Menderesspor's win probability at 59.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.9%, a difference of 18.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Muş Menderesspor win 1–3).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Muş Menderesspor than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Muş Menderesspor higher (59.9% vs model 41.9%, 18.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Muş Menderesspor win 1–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 20, 2026 · 13:04 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Somaspor 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Muş Menderesspor 41.9%
- xG · Somaspor 1.16 — Muş Menderesspor 1.44
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Somaspor 4.89 · Draw 4.19 · Muş Menderesspor 1.51
- Implied 1X2 · Somaspor 18.5% · Draw 21.6% · Muş Menderesspor 59.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Somaspor 4.89 · Draw 4.19 · Muş Menderesspor 1.51
- Implied 1X2 · Somaspor 18.5% · Draw 21.6% · Muş Menderesspor 59.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Muş Menderesspor win · 1–3
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (18 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 9/100

Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8671727

Closing Odds 1.51

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Muş Menderesspor win · Somaspor 1–3 Muş Menderesspor

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 2. Lig
Fixture: Somaspor vs Muş Menderesspor
Kickoff: 2026-09-20 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Away 41.9%
xG (showing): Somaspor 1.16 — Muş Menderesspor 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Lig — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Elazığspor	3	3	0	0	9
2	Çorluspor 1947	3	2	1	0	7
3	Muş Menderesspor	3	2	1	0	7
4	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	4	2	1	1	7
5	Belediye Derincespor	3	2	1	0	7
6	Somaspor	4	2	1	1	7
7	Aliağa FAŞ	3	2	0	1	6
8	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	3	1	2	0	5
9	Şanlıurfaspor	3	1	2	0	5
10	Erbaaspor	3	1	1	1	4
11	Menemen Belediyespor	3	1	0	2	3
12	Ankaraspor	4	1	0	3	3
13	Sebat Gençlikspor	3	0	1	2	1
14	Isparta 32 Spor	3	0	1	2	1
15	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	3	0	0	3	0
16	Kastamonuspor 1966	4	1	0	3	0
17	Hatayspor	3	0	1	2
18	Adana Demirspor	3	1	1	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Muş Menderesspor	3	11	5	+6	7
2	Elazığspor	3	10	1	+9	9
3	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	4	9	6	+3	7
4	Somaspor	4	8	7	+1	7
5	Erbaaspor	3	8	8	0	4
6	Çorluspor 1947	3	7	0	+7	7
7	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	3	7	4	+3	5
8	Belediye Derincespor	3	6	3	+3	7
9	Aliağa FAŞ	3	6	6	0	6
10	Sebat Gençlikspor	3	6	9	-3	1
11	Şanlıurfaspor	3	5	4	+1	5
12	Menemen Belediyespor	3	4	7	-3	3
13	Isparta 32 Spor	3	4	7	-3	1
14	Adana Demirspor	3	3	4	-1
15	Ankaraspor	4	2	6	-4	3
16	Kastamonuspor 1966	4	2	12	-10	0
17	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	3	1	7	-6	0
18	Hatayspor	3	0	3	-3