Predictions / Football / Turkey. 2. Lig / Kastamonuspor 1966 vs Hatayspor

Prediction Audit: Kastamonuspor 1966 vs Hatayspor Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kastamonuspor 1966 Kastamonuspor 1966
Sep 20, 2026 - 12:30
1 1.23
0 1.37
xG Accuracy: 64%
Hatayspor Hatayspor

The model missed the final outcome (Kastamonuspor 1966 win 1–0).

The model had projected Hatayspor at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Hatayspor Kastamonuspor 1966 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Hatayspor -4.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kastamonuspor 1966 1966 31.9% 31.8% +0.2 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 25.1% +4.4 pp Aligned
Hatayspor 38.5% 43.1% -4.6 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Kastamonuspor 1966 win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Hatayspor; match finished Kastamonuspor 1966

Market lesson

The full-time result was Kastamonuspor 1966 win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 20, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kastamonuspor 1966 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Hatayspor 38.5%
    • xG · Kastamonuspor 1966 1.23 — Hatayspor 1.37
  2. Sep 20, 2026 · 12:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kastamonuspor 1966 2.85 · Draw 3.60 · Hatayspor 2.10
    • Implied 1X2 · Kastamonuspor 1966 31.8% · Draw 25.1% · Hatayspor 43.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 20, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Kastamonuspor 1966 2.85 · Draw 3.60 · Hatayspor 2.10
    • Implied 1X2 · Kastamonuspor 1966 31.8% · Draw 25.1% · Hatayspor 43.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 20, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Kastamonuspor 1966 win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 76/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8668455

Closing Odds 2.1
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kastamonuspor 1966 win · Kastamonuspor 1966 1–0 Hatayspor
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 2. Lig
  • Fixture: Kastamonuspor 1966 1966 vs Hatayspor
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 12:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
  • xG (showing): Kastamonuspor 1966 1966 1.23 — Hatayspor 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.2% · Probability edge: +4.6 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Lig 2. Lig — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Elazığspor 3 3 0 0 9
2 Çorluspor 1947 3 2 1 0 7
3 Muş Menderesspor 3 2 1 0 7
4 İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 4 2 1 1 7
5 Belediye Derincespor 3 2 1 0 7
6 Somaspor 4 2 1 1 7
7 Aliağa FAŞ 3 2 0 1 6
8 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 3 1 2 0 5
9 Şanlıurfaspor 3 1 2 0 5
10 Erbaaspor 3 1 1 1 4
11 Menemen Belediyespor 3 1 0 2 3
12 Ankaraspor 4 1 0 3 3
13 Sebat Gençlikspor 3 0 1 2 1
14 Isparta 32 Spor 3 0 1 2 1
15 Arnavutköy Belediyespor 3 0 0 3 0
16 Kastamonuspor 1966 4 1 0 3 0
17 Hatayspor 3 0 1 2
18 Adana Demirspor 3 1 1 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Muş Menderesspor 3 11 5 +6 7
2 Elazığspor 3 10 1 +9 9
3 İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 4 9 6 +3 7
4 Somaspor 4 8 7 +1 7
5 Erbaaspor 3 8 8 0 4
6 Çorluspor 1947 3 7 0 +7 7
7 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 3 7 4 +3 5
8 Belediye Derincespor 3 6 3 +3 7
9 Aliağa FAŞ 3 6 6 0 6
10 Sebat Gençlikspor 3 6 9 -3 1
11 Şanlıurfaspor 3 5 4 +1 5
12 Menemen Belediyespor 3 4 7 -3 3
13 Isparta 32 Spor 3 4 7 -3 1
14 Adana Demirspor 3 3 4 -1
15 Ankaraspor 4 2 6 -4 3
16 Kastamonuspor 1966 4 2 12 -10 0
17 Arnavutköy Belediyespor 3 1 7 -6 0
18 Hatayspor 3 0 3 -3
2. Lig Turkey. 2. Lig Predictions