Predictions / Football / Turkey. 2. Lig / Arnavutköy Belediyespor vs Çorluspor 1947

Prediction Audit: Arnavutköy Belediyespor vs Çorluspor 1947 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Arnavutköy Belediyespor Arnavutköy Belediyespor
Sep 19, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.33
2 1.27
xG Accuracy: 57%
Çorluspor 1947 Çorluspor 1947

The model missed the final outcome (Çorluspor 1947 win 0–2).

The model had projected Arnavutköy Belediyespor at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Arnavutköy Belediyespor Çorluspor 1947 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Çorluspor 1947 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Çorluspor 1947 -27.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Arnavutköy Belediyespor 36.6% 15.4% +21.1 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 23.4% +6.2 pp Model Higher
Çorluspor 1947 33.8% 61.2% -27.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Çorluspor 1947's win probability at 61.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 27.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Çorluspor 1947 win 0–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Arnavutköy Belediyespor; match finished Çorluspor 1947

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Arnavutköy Belediyespor by 27.4 percentage points (64.0% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 19, 2026 · 13:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Çorluspor 1947 33.8%
    • xG · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 1.33 — Çorluspor 1947 1.27
  2. Sep 19, 2026 · 12:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 5.86 · Draw 3.87 · Çorluspor 1947 1.48
    • Implied 1X2 · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 15.4% · Draw 23.4% · Çorluspor 1947 61.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 19, 2026 · 13:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 5.86 · Draw 3.87 · Çorluspor 1947 1.48
    • Implied 1X2 · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 15.4% · Draw 23.4% · Çorluspor 1947 61.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 19, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Çorluspor 1947 win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (27 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 13/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8672809

Closing Odds 1.48
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Çorluspor 1947 win · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 0–2 Çorluspor 1947
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 2. Lig
  • Fixture: Arnavutköy Belediyespor vs Çorluspor 1947
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Arnavutköy Belediyespor 1.33 — Çorluspor 1947 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 47.6% · Probability edge: +6.9 pts · Est. EV: +6.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Lig 2. Lig — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Elazığspor 3 3 0 0 9
2 Çorluspor 1947 3 2 1 0 7
3 Muş Menderesspor 3 2 1 0 7
4 İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 4 2 1 1 7
5 Belediye Derincespor 3 2 1 0 7
6 Somaspor 4 2 1 1 7
7 Aliağa FAŞ 3 2 0 1 6
8 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 3 1 2 0 5
9 Şanlıurfaspor 3 1 2 0 5
10 Erbaaspor 3 1 1 1 4
11 Menemen Belediyespor 3 1 0 2 3
12 Ankaraspor 4 1 0 3 3
13 Sebat Gençlikspor 3 0 1 2 1
14 Isparta 32 Spor 3 0 1 2 1
15 Arnavutköy Belediyespor 3 0 0 3 0
16 Kastamonuspor 1966 4 1 0 3 0
17 Hatayspor 3 0 1 2
18 Adana Demirspor 3 1 1 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Muş Menderesspor 3 11 5 +6 7
2 Elazığspor 3 10 1 +9 9
3 İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 4 9 6 +3 7
4 Somaspor 4 8 7 +1 7
5 Erbaaspor 3 8 8 0 4
6 Çorluspor 1947 3 7 0 +7 7
7 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 3 7 4 +3 5
8 Belediye Derincespor 3 6 3 +3 7
9 Aliağa FAŞ 3 6 6 0 6
10 Sebat Gençlikspor 3 6 9 -3 1
11 Şanlıurfaspor 3 5 4 +1 5
12 Menemen Belediyespor 3 4 7 -3 3
13 Isparta 32 Spor 3 4 7 -3 1
14 Adana Demirspor 3 3 4 -1
15 Ankaraspor 4 2 6 -4 3
16 Kastamonuspor 1966 4 2 12 -10 0
17 Arnavutköy Belediyespor 3 1 7 -6 0
18 Hatayspor 3 0 3 -3
2. Lig Turkey. 2. Lig Predictions