Predictions / Football / Turkey. 2. Lig / Aliağa FAŞ vs Isparta 32 Spor

Prediction Audit: Aliağa FAŞ vs Isparta 32 Spor Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Aliağa FAŞ Aliağa FAŞ
Sep 13, 2026 - 13:30
2 1.29
0 1.31
xG Accuracy: 57%
Isparta 32 Spor Isparta 32 Spor

The model missed the final outcome (Aliağa FAŞ win 2–0).

The model had projected Isparta 32 Spor at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Isparta 32 Spor Aliağa FAŞ ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Aliağa FAŞ higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Aliağa FAŞ -25.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Aliağa FAŞ 34.7% 60.2% -25.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 23.1% +6.5 pp Model Higher
Isparta 32 Spor 35.6% 16.7% +19.0 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Aliağa FAŞ's win probability at 60.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 25.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Aliağa FAŞ win 2–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Isparta 32 Spor; match finished Aliağa FAŞ
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Isparta 32 Spor by 25.5 percentage points (61.1% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 13, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Aliağa FAŞ 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Isparta 32 Spor 35.6%
    • xG · Aliağa FAŞ 1.29 — Isparta 32 Spor 1.31
  2. Sep 13, 2026 · 13:05 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Aliağa FAŞ 1.51 · Draw 3.93 · Isparta 32 Spor 5.45
    • Implied 1X2 · Aliağa FAŞ 60.2% · Draw 23.1% · Isparta 32 Spor 16.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 13, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Aliağa FAŞ 1.51 · Draw 3.93 · Isparta 32 Spor 5.45
    • Implied 1X2 · Aliağa FAŞ 60.2% · Draw 23.1% · Isparta 32 Spor 16.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 13, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Aliağa FAŞ win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (25 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7440769

Closing Odds 1.51
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Aliağa FAŞ win · Aliağa FAŞ 2–0 Isparta 32 Spor
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 2. Lig
  • Fixture: Aliağa FAŞ vs Isparta 32 Spor
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Aliağa FAŞ 1.29 — Isparta 32 Spor 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.2% · Probability edge: +5.6 pts · Est. EV: +11.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Lig 2. Lig — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Elazığspor 3 3 0 0 9
2 Çorluspor 1947 3 2 1 0 7
3 Muş Menderesspor 3 2 1 0 7
4 İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 4 2 1 1 7
5 Belediye Derincespor 3 2 1 0 7
6 Somaspor 4 2 1 1 7
7 Aliağa FAŞ 3 2 0 1 6
8 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 3 1 2 0 5
9 Şanlıurfaspor 3 1 2 0 5
10 Erbaaspor 3 1 1 1 4
11 Menemen Belediyespor 3 1 0 2 3
12 Ankaraspor 4 1 0 3 3
13 Sebat Gençlikspor 3 0 1 2 1
14 Isparta 32 Spor 3 0 1 2 1
15 Arnavutköy Belediyespor 3 0 0 3 0
16 Kastamonuspor 1966 4 1 0 3 0
17 Hatayspor 3 0 1 2
18 Adana Demirspor 3 1 1 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Muş Menderesspor 3 11 5 +6 7
2 Elazığspor 3 10 1 +9 9
3 İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik 4 9 6 +3 7
4 Somaspor 4 8 7 +1 7
5 Erbaaspor 3 8 8 0 4
6 Çorluspor 1947 3 7 0 +7 7
7 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 3 7 4 +3 5
8 Belediye Derincespor 3 6 3 +3 7
9 Aliağa FAŞ 3 6 6 0 6
10 Sebat Gençlikspor 3 6 9 -3 1
11 Şanlıurfaspor 3 5 4 +1 5
12 Menemen Belediyespor 3 4 7 -3 3
13 Isparta 32 Spor 3 4 7 -3 1
14 Adana Demirspor 3 3 4 -1
15 Ankaraspor 4 2 6 -4 3
16 Kastamonuspor 1966 4 2 12 -10 0
17 Arnavutköy Belediyespor 3 1 7 -6 0
18 Hatayspor 3 0 3 -3
2. Lig Turkey. 2. Lig Predictions