Prediction Audit: Arnavutköy Belediyespor vs Aliağa FAŞ Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Arnavutköy Belediyespor

Sep 06, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.25

4 1.35

xG Accuracy: 45%

Aliağa FAŞ

AI correctly predicted the Aliağa FAŞ win.

The match finished 1–4, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Aliağa FAŞ Aliağa FAŞ ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Arnavutköy Belediyespor	32.9%	14.3%	+18.6 pp	Model Edge
Draw	29.6%	22.9%	+6.7 pp	Model Higher
Aliağa FAŞ	37.5%	62.8%	-25.2 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Aliağa FAŞ's win probability at 62.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 25.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Aliağa FAŞ win 1–4).

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Aliağa FAŞ higher (62.7% vs model 37.5%, 25.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Aliağa FAŞ win 1–4).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 06, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Aliağa FAŞ 37.6%
- xG · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 1.25 — Aliağa FAŞ 1.35
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 6.33 · Draw 3.94 · Aliağa FAŞ 1.44
- Implied 1X2 · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 14.3% · Draw 22.9% · Aliağa FAŞ 62.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 6.33 · Draw 3.94 · Aliağa FAŞ 1.44
- Implied 1X2 · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 14.3% · Draw 22.9% · Aliağa FAŞ 62.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Aliağa FAŞ win · 1–4
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (25 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 32/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6361872

Closing Odds 1.44

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Aliağa FAŞ win · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 1–4 Aliağa FAŞ

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 2. Lig
Fixture: Arnavutköy Belediyespor vs Aliağa FAŞ
Kickoff: 2026-09-06 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
xG (showing): Arnavutköy Belediyespor 1.25 — Aliağa FAŞ 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming 2. Lig Matches Track Arnavutköy Belediyespor Next Match Prediction Track Aliağa FAŞ Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Arnavutköy Belediyespor & Aliağa FAŞ!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Predictions

2. Lig — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Elazığspor	3	3	0	0	9
2	Çorluspor 1947	3	2	1	0	7
3	Muş Menderesspor	3	2	1	0	7
4	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	4	2	1	1	7
5	Belediye Derincespor	3	2	1	0	7
6	Somaspor	4	2	1	1	7
7	Aliağa FAŞ	3	2	0	1	6
8	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	3	1	2	0	5
9	Şanlıurfaspor	3	1	2	0	5
10	Erbaaspor	3	1	1	1	4
11	Menemen Belediyespor	3	1	0	2	3
12	Ankaraspor	4	1	0	3	3
13	Sebat Gençlikspor	3	0	1	2	1
14	Isparta 32 Spor	3	0	1	2	1
15	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	3	0	0	3	0
16	Kastamonuspor 1966	4	1	0	3	0
17	Hatayspor	3	0	1	2
18	Adana Demirspor	3	1	1	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Muş Menderesspor	3	11	5	+6	7
2	Elazığspor	3	10	1	+9	9
3	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	4	9	6	+3	7
4	Somaspor	4	8	7	+1	7
5	Erbaaspor	3	8	8	0	4
6	Çorluspor 1947	3	7	0	+7	7
7	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	3	7	4	+3	5
8	Belediye Derincespor	3	6	3	+3	7
9	Aliağa FAŞ	3	6	6	0	6
10	Sebat Gençlikspor	3	6	9	-3	1
11	Şanlıurfaspor	3	5	4	+1	5
12	Menemen Belediyespor	3	4	7	-3	3
13	Isparta 32 Spor	3	4	7	-3	1
14	Adana Demirspor	3	3	4	-1
15	Ankaraspor	4	2	6	-4	3
16	Kastamonuspor 1966	4	2	12	-10	0
17	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	3	1	7	-6	0
18	Hatayspor	3	0	3	-3