Predictions / Football / Turkey. 3. Lig - Group 2 / Buca FK vs Altay

Prediction Audit: Buca FK vs Altay Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Buca FK Buca FK
Sep 27, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 75%
Altay Altay

The model missed the final outcome (Altay win 1–2).

The model had projected Buca FK at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Buca FK Altay ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Altay higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Altay -6.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Buca FK 36.1% 31.3% +4.8 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 27.7% +1.9 pp Aligned
Altay 34.2% 41.0% -6.7 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Altay's win probability at 41.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Altay win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Altay. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Buca FK by 6.7 percentage points (42.8% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 27, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Buca FK 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Altay 34.2%
    • xG · Buca FK 1.32 — Altay 1.28
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Buca FK 2.88 · Draw 3.25 · Altay 2.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Buca FK 31.3% · Draw 27.7% · Altay 41.0%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Sep 27, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Buca FK 2.88 · Draw 3.25 · Altay 2.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Buca FK 31.3% · Draw 27.7% · Altay 41.0%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. Sep 27, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Altay win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10105072

Closing Odds 2.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Altay win · Buca FK 1–2 Altay
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 3. Lig - Group 2
  • Fixture: Buca FK vs Altay
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Buca FK 1.32 — Altay 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.2% · Probability edge: +5.6 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Lig - Group 2 3. Lig - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Balıkesirspor 3 3 0 0 9
2 Nilüfer Belediye 3 3 0 0 9
3 Etimesgut Belediyespor 4 3 0 1 9
4 Ayvalıkgücü Belediyespor 4 3 0 1 9
5 Anadolu Üniversitesi 3 2 1 0 7
6 Bursa Yıldırımspor 3 2 1 0 7
7 Gaziemirspor 4 2 0 2 6
8 Bigaspor 4 1 2 1 5
9 Eskişehirspor 3 1 1 1 4
10 Efeler 09 Spor 3 1 1 1 4
11 Akşehirspor 3 1 0 2 3
12 Buca FK 3 1 0 2 3
13 Altay 3 0 2 1 2
14 Karşıyaka 4 0 2 2 2
15 Utaş Uşakspor 3 0 2 1 2
16 Kepez Belediyespor 3 0 1 2 1
17 Denizli İYG 3 0 1 2 1
18 Kestelspor 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Balıkesirspor 3 11 2 +9 9
2 Ayvalıkgücü Belediyespor 4 9 5 +4 9
3 Nilüfer Belediye 3 7 1 +6 9
4 Anadolu Üniversitesi 3 7 2 +5 7
5 Bigaspor 4 7 5 +2 5
6 Etimesgut Belediyespor 4 6 1 +5 9
7 Gaziemirspor 4 6 5 +1 6
8 Eskişehirspor 3 6 5 +1 4
9 Bursa Yıldırımspor 3 5 2 +3 7
10 Akşehirspor 3 4 7 -3 3
11 Utaş Uşakspor 3 4 7 -3 2
12 Efeler 09 Spor 3 3 2 +1 4
13 Altay 3 3 4 -1 2
14 Karşıyaka 4 3 5 -2 2
15 Buca FK 3 3 7 -4 3
16 Kepez Belediyespor 3 2 7 -5 1
17 Denizli İYG 3 1 8 -7 1
18 Kestelspor 4 1 13 -12 0
3. Lig - Group 2 Turkey. 3. Lig - Group 2 Predictions