The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).
The model had projected Gölcükspor at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Gölcükspor Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yalova Yeşilovaspor | 33.3% | 49.6% | -16.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.5% | +4.1 pp | Aligned |
| Gölcükspor | 37.1% | 24.8% | +12.2 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Yalova Yeşilovaspor's win probability at 49.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 16.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 3–3.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Yalova Yeşilovaspor than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Gölcükspor; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Gölcükspor by 16.3 percentage points (53.4% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:04 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Gölcükspor 37.0%
- xG · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 1.26 — Gölcükspor 1.34
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 1.80 · Draw 3.50 · Gölcükspor 3.60
- Implied 1X2 · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 49.6% · Draw 25.5% · Gölcükspor 24.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 1.80 · Draw 3.50 · Gölcükspor 3.60
- Implied 1X2 · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 49.6% · Draw 25.5% · Gölcükspor 24.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (16 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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3. Lig - Group 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orduspor 1967 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 2 | Küçükçekmece Sinopspor | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 3 | Pazarspor | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Tokat Bld Plevnespor | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | Fatsa Belediyespor | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Amasyaspor 1968 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Düzcespor | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Karadeniz Ereğli BSK | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Kartal Bulvarspor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Gölcükspor | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Yalova Yeşilovaspor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Karabük İdman Yurdu | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Galata | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Silivrispor | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | İnkılapspor | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | Tuzlaspor | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Zonguldak Kömürspor | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | Beykoz İshaklıspor | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orduspor 1967 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 8 |
| 2 | Kartal Bulvarspor | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 4 |
| 3 | Pazarspor | 3 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 4 | Tokat Bld Plevnespor | 3 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 5 |
| 5 | Küçükçekmece Sinopspor | 4 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 6 | Gölcükspor | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Yalova Yeşilovaspor | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Fatsa Belediyespor | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 5 |
| 9 | Amasyaspor 1968 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 10 | Düzcespor | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 11 | İnkılapspor | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 | Zonguldak Kömürspor | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 1 |
| 13 | Karabük İdman Yurdu | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Karadeniz Ereğli BSK | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 15 | Galata | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | Tuzlaspor | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
| 17 | Silivrispor | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 18 | Beykoz İshaklıspor | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
