Predictions / Football / Turkey. 3. Lig - Group 1 / Yalova Yeşilovaspor vs Tokat Bld Plevnespor

Prediction Audit: Yalova Yeşilovaspor vs Tokat Bld Plevnespor Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Yalova Yeşilovaspor Yalova Yeşilovaspor
Sep 06, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.24
3 1.36
xG Accuracy: 45%
Tokat Bld Plevnespor Tokat Bld Plevnespor

AI correctly predicted the Tokat Bld Plevnespor win.

The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Tokat Bld Plevnespor Tokat Bld Plevnespor ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Yalova Yeşilovaspor -2.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Yalova Yeşilovaspor 32.4% 34.6% -2.2 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 27.7% +1.9 pp Aligned
Tokat Bld Plevnespor 38.0% 37.8% +0.2 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Tokat Bld Plevnespor win 0–3).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Tokat Bld Plevnespor win 0–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Tokat Bld Plevnespor 38.0%
    • xG · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 1.24 — Tokat Bld Plevnespor 1.36
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 13:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 2.60 · Draw 3.25 · Tokat Bld Plevnespor 2.38
    • Implied 1X2 · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 34.6% · Draw 27.7% · Tokat Bld Plevnespor 37.8%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 2.60 · Draw 3.25 · Tokat Bld Plevnespor 2.38
    • Implied 1X2 · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 34.6% · Draw 27.7% · Tokat Bld Plevnespor 37.8%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Tokat Bld Plevnespor win · 0–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 89/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6361835

Closing Odds 2.6
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tokat Bld Plevnespor win · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 0–3 Tokat Bld Plevnespor
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. Lig - Group 1
  • Fixture: Yalova Yeşilovaspor vs Tokat Bld Plevnespor
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Yalova Yeşilovaspor 1.24 — Tokat Bld Plevnespor 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 43.0% · Probability edge: +5.2 pts · Est. EV: +6.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Lig - Group 1 3. Lig - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Orduspor 1967 4 2 2 0 8
2 Küçükçekmece Sinopspor 4 2 2 0 8
3 Pazarspor 3 2 1 0 7
4 Tokat Bld Plevnespor 3 1 2 0 5
5 Fatsa Belediyespor 3 1 2 0 5
6 Amasyaspor 1968 3 1 2 0 5
7 Düzcespor 3 1 2 0 5
8 Karadeniz Ereğli BSK 3 1 2 0 5
9 Kartal Bulvarspor 3 1 1 1 4
10 Gölcükspor 4 1 1 2 4
11 Yalova Yeşilovaspor 3 1 1 1 4
12 Karabük İdman Yurdu 3 1 1 1 4
13 Galata 3 0 3 0 3
14 Silivrispor 3 1 0 2 3
15 İnkılapspor 3 1 0 2 3
16 Tuzlaspor 3 0 1 2 1
17 Zonguldak Kömürspor 4 0 1 3 1
18 Beykoz İshaklıspor 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Orduspor 1967 4 7 3 +4 8
2 Kartal Bulvarspor 3 7 4 +3 4
3 Pazarspor 3 6 1 +5 7
4 Tokat Bld Plevnespor 3 6 3 +3 5
5 Küçükçekmece Sinopspor 4 5 2 +3 8
6 Gölcükspor 4 5 5 0 4
7 Yalova Yeşilovaspor 3 5 7 -2 4
8 Fatsa Belediyespor 3 4 2 +2 5
9 Amasyaspor 1968 3 4 3 +1 5
10 Düzcespor 3 4 3 +1 5
11 İnkılapspor 3 4 8 -4 3
12 Zonguldak Kömürspor 4 4 8 -4 1
13 Karabük İdman Yurdu 3 3 6 -3 4
14 Karadeniz Ereğli BSK 3 2 1 +1 5
15 Galata 3 2 2 0 3
16 Tuzlaspor 3 2 4 -2 1
17 Silivrispor 3 2 5 -3 3
18 Beykoz İshaklıspor 3 2 7 -5 0
3. Lig - Group 1 Turkey. 3. Lig - Group 1 Predictions