Predictions / Football / Croatia. First NL / Croatia Zmijavci vs Sesvete

Prediction Audit: Croatia Zmijavci vs Sesvete Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Croatia Zmijavci Croatia Zmijavci
Sep 27, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.13
0 1.47
xG Accuracy: 52%
Sesvete Sesvete

The model missed the final outcome (Croatia Zmijavci win 2–0).

The model had projected Sesvete at 43.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sesvete Croatia Zmijavci ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Croatia Zmijavci higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Croatia Zmijavci -10.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Croatia Zmijavci 27.5% 37.6% -10.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.1% 28.3% +0.9 pp Aligned
Sesvete 43.4% 34.2% +9.2 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Croatia Zmijavci's win probability at 37.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 27.5%, a difference of 10.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Croatia Zmijavci win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Croatia Zmijavci than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sesvete by 10.1 percentage points (53.5% vs model 43.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 27, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Croatia Zmijavci 27.5% · Draw 29.2% · Sesvete 43.3%
    • xG · Croatia Zmijavci 1.13 — Sesvete 1.47
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 13:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Croatia Zmijavci 2.41 · Draw 3.20 · Sesvete 2.65
    • Implied 1X2 · Croatia Zmijavci 37.6% · Draw 28.3% · Sesvete 34.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 27, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Croatia Zmijavci 2.41 · Draw 3.20 · Sesvete 2.65
    • Implied 1X2 · Croatia Zmijavci 37.6% · Draw 28.3% · Sesvete 34.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 27, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Croatia Zmijavci win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 17/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10098719

Closing Odds 2.41
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Croatia Zmijavci win · Croatia Zmijavci 2–0 Sesvete
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: First NL
  • Fixture: Croatia Zmijavci vs Sesvete
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.5% · Draw 29.2% · Away 43.3%
  • xG (showing): Croatia Zmijavci 1.13 — Sesvete 1.47 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 53.7% · Implied: 46.2% · Probability edge: +7.5 pts · Est. EV: +12.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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First NL First NL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Jadran LP 7 4 2 1 14
2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo 7 4 1 2 13
3 Mladost Ždralovi 7 3 2 2 11
4 Croatia Zmijavci 6 3 1 2 10
5 HNK Cibalia 6 2 4 0 10
6 Segesta Sisak 6 3 1 2 10
7 Sesvete 6 3 0 3 9
8 Dugopolje 6 2 3 1 9
9 Dinamo Zagreb U21 7 3 0 4 9
10 Dubrava Zagreb 7 2 2 3 8
11 Vukovar 6 2 2 2 8
12 Orijent 1919 7 2 2 3 8
13 Karlovac 1919 6 2 1 3 7
14 Hrvace 7 2 1 4 7
15 Kustosija 7 1 3 3 6
16 Opatija 6 1 1 4 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Jadran LP 7 12 7 +5 14
2 Dinamo Zagreb U21 7 11 11 0 9
3 Vukovar 6 11 13 -2 8
4 Croatia Zmijavci 6 9 6 +3 10
5 Sesvete 6 9 6 +3 9
6 Dugopolje 6 9 8 +1 9
7 Bsk Bijelo Brdo 7 8 6 +2 13
8 Segesta Sisak 6 8 7 +1 10
9 Karlovac 1919 6 7 9 -2 7
10 Opatija 6 7 10 -3 4
11 Hrvace 7 7 12 -5 7
12 HNK Cibalia 6 6 4 +2 10
13 Mladost Ždralovi 7 6 6 0 11
14 Dubrava Zagreb 7 6 7 -1 8
15 Orijent 1919 7 6 8 -2 8
16 Kustosija 7 3 5 -2 6