Predictions / Football / Croatia. First NL / Karlovac 1919 vs Hrvace

Prediction Audit: Karlovac 1919 vs Hrvace Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Karlovac 1919 Karlovac 1919
Sep 06, 2026 - 17:00
3 1.31
1 1.29
xG Accuracy: 58%
Hrvace Hrvace

AI correctly predicted the Karlovac 1919 win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Karlovac 1919 Karlovac 1919 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Karlovac 1919 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Karlovac 1919 -13.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Karlovac 1919 35.6% 48.8% -13.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.4% +3.2 pp Aligned
Hrvace 34.7% 24.8% +9.9 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Karlovac 1919's win probability at 48.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 13.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Karlovac 1919 win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Karlovac 1919 than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Karlovac 1919 higher (48.8% vs model 35.6%, 13.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Karlovac 1919 win 3–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Karlovac 1919 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Hrvace 34.7%
    • xG · Karlovac 1919 1.31 — Hrvace 1.29
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Karlovac 1919 1.85 · Draw 3.42 · Hrvace 3.64
    • Implied 1X2 · Karlovac 1919 48.8% · Draw 26.4% · Hrvace 24.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Karlovac 1919 1.85 · Draw 3.42 · Hrvace 3.64
    • Implied 1X2 · Karlovac 1919 48.8% · Draw 26.4% · Hrvace 24.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Karlovac 1919 win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 34/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 08:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6370375

Closing Odds 1.85
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Karlovac 1919 win · Karlovac 1919 3–1 Hrvace
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: First NL
  • Fixture: Karlovac 1919 vs Hrvace
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Karlovac 1919 1.31 — Hrvace 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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First NL First NL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Jadran LP 7 4 2 1 14
2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo 7 4 1 2 13
3 Mladost Ždralovi 7 3 2 2 11
4 Croatia Zmijavci 6 3 1 2 10
5 HNK Cibalia 6 2 4 0 10
6 Segesta Sisak 6 3 1 2 10
7 Sesvete 6 3 0 3 9
8 Dugopolje 6 2 3 1 9
9 Dinamo Zagreb U21 7 3 0 4 9
10 Dubrava Zagreb 7 2 2 3 8
11 Vukovar 6 2 2 2 8
12 Orijent 1919 7 2 2 3 8
13 Karlovac 1919 6 2 1 3 7
14 Hrvace 7 2 1 4 7
15 Kustosija 7 1 3 3 6
16 Opatija 6 1 1 4 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Jadran LP 7 12 7 +5 14
2 Dinamo Zagreb U21 7 11 11 0 9
3 Vukovar 6 11 13 -2 8
4 Croatia Zmijavci 6 9 6 +3 10
5 Sesvete 6 9 6 +3 9
6 Dugopolje 6 9 8 +1 9
7 Bsk Bijelo Brdo 7 8 6 +2 13
8 Segesta Sisak 6 8 7 +1 10
9 Karlovac 1919 6 7 9 -2 7
10 Opatija 6 7 10 -3 4
11 Hrvace 7 7 12 -5 7
12 HNK Cibalia 6 6 4 +2 10
13 Mladost Ždralovi 7 6 6 0 11
14 Dubrava Zagreb 7 6 7 -1 8
15 Orijent 1919 7 6 8 -2 8
16 Kustosija 7 3 5 -2 6