Predictions / Football / Croatia. First NL / Croatia Zmijavci vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo

Prediction Audit: Croatia Zmijavci vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Croatia Zmijavci Croatia Zmijavci
Sep 02, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.20
0 1.40
xG Accuracy: 64%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo Bsk Bijelo Brdo

The model missed the final outcome (Croatia Zmijavci win 1–0).

The model had projected Bsk Bijelo Brdo at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo Croatia Zmijavci ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Bsk Bijelo Brdo considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Bsk Bijelo Brdo +20.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Croatia Zmijavci 30.6% 50.2% -19.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 30.7% -1.3 pp Aligned
Bsk Bijelo Brdo 39.9% 19.1% +20.9 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Bsk Bijelo Brdo's win probability at 39.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 19.1%, a difference of 20.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Croatia Zmijavci win 1–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Bsk Bijelo Brdo; match finished Croatia Zmijavci

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Bsk Bijelo Brdo by 20.9 percentage points (19.0% vs model 39.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 02, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Croatia Zmijavci 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 40.0%
    • xG · Croatia Zmijavci 1.20 — Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1.40
  2. Sep 02, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Croatia Zmijavci 1.80 · Draw 2.94 · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 4.74
    • Implied 1X2 · Croatia Zmijavci 50.2% · Draw 30.7% · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 19.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 02, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Croatia Zmijavci 1.80 · Draw 2.94 · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 4.74
    • Implied 1X2 · Croatia Zmijavci 50.2% · Draw 30.7% · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 19.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 02, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Croatia Zmijavci win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (21 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 15/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 27, 2026 · 02:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5622332

Closing Odds 4.74
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Croatia Zmijavci win · Croatia Zmijavci 1–0 Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: First NL
  • Fixture: Croatia Zmijavci vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-02 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
  • xG (showing): Croatia Zmijavci 1.2 — Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming First NL Matches Track Croatia Zmijavci Next Match Prediction Track Bsk Bijelo Brdo Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Croatia Zmijavci & Bsk Bijelo Brdo!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
First NL First NL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Jadran LP 7 4 2 1 14
2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo 7 4 1 2 13
3 Mladost Ždralovi 7 3 2 2 11
4 Croatia Zmijavci 6 3 1 2 10
5 HNK Cibalia 6 2 4 0 10
6 Segesta Sisak 6 3 1 2 10
7 Sesvete 6 3 0 3 9
8 Dugopolje 6 2 3 1 9
9 Dinamo Zagreb U21 7 3 0 4 9
10 Dubrava Zagreb 7 2 2 3 8
11 Vukovar 6 2 2 2 8
12 Orijent 1919 7 2 2 3 8
13 Karlovac 1919 6 2 1 3 7
14 Hrvace 7 2 1 4 7
15 Kustosija 7 1 3 3 6
16 Opatija 6 1 1 4 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Jadran LP 7 12 7 +5 14
2 Dinamo Zagreb U21 7 11 11 0 9
3 Vukovar 6 11 13 -2 8
4 Croatia Zmijavci 6 9 6 +3 10
5 Sesvete 6 9 6 +3 9
6 Dugopolje 6 9 8 +1 9
7 Bsk Bijelo Brdo 7 8 6 +2 13
8 Segesta Sisak 6 8 7 +1 10
9 Karlovac 1919 6 7 9 -2 7
10 Opatija 6 7 10 -3 4
11 Hrvace 7 7 12 -5 7
12 HNK Cibalia 6 6 4 +2 10
13 Mladost Ždralovi 7 6 6 0 11
14 Dubrava Zagreb 7 6 7 -1 8
15 Orijent 1919 7 6 8 -2 8
16 Kustosija 7 3 5 -2 6