Predictions / Football / Slovenia. 3. SNL - West / Šobec Lesce vs Vipava

Prediction Audit: Šobec Lesce vs Vipava Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Šobec Lesce Šobec Lesce
Sep 26, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.35
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 52%
Vipava Vipava

The model missed the final outcome (Vipava win 2–3).

The model had projected Šobec Lesce at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Šobec Lesce Vipava ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Šobec Lesce; match finished Vipava

Market lesson

The full-time result was Vipava win 2–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 21, 2026 · 01:47 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Šobec Lesce 1.35 — Vipava 1.25
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Vipava win · 2–3
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10098593

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Vipava win · Šobec Lesce 2–3 Vipava
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. SNL - West
  • Fixture: Šobec Lesce vs Vipava
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Šobec Lesce 1.35 — Vipava 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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3. SNL - West 3. SNL - West — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Izola 6 6 0 0 18
2 Idrija 6 5 1 0 16
3 Dob 6 4 1 1 13
4 Rudar Trbovlje 6 3 1 2 10
5 Šencur 6 2 3 1 9
6 Škofja Loka 6 2 3 1 9
7 Tolmin 6 2 3 1 9
8 Litija 6 2 2 2 8
9 Adria 6 2 1 3 7
10 Žiri 6 1 3 2 6
11 Šobec Lesce 6 0 3 3 3
12 IB 1975 Ljubljana 6 1 0 5 3
13 Vipava 6 1 0 5 3
14 Svoboda 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Izola 6 28 4 +24 18
2 Dob 6 15 5 +10 13
3 Šencur 6 12 9 +3 9
4 Škofja Loka 6 12 10 +2 9
5 Tolmin 6 11 9 +2 9
6 Adria 6 11 11 0 7
7 Idrija 6 10 4 +6 16
8 Vipava 6 10 28 -18 3
9 Rudar Trbovlje 6 9 10 -1 10
10 Litija 6 8 7 +1 8
11 Žiri 6 7 10 -3 6
12 IB 1975 Ljubljana 6 6 13 -7 3
13 Svoboda 6 5 18 -13 1
14 Šobec Lesce 6 4 10 -6 3
3. SNL - West Slovenia. 3. SNL - West Predictions