The model missed the final outcome (Dobrovce win 2–3).
The model had projected Videm at 45.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Videm Dobrovce ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Videm | 45.3% | 68.9% | -23.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.9% | 16.5% | +12.4 pp | Model Edge |
| Dobrovce | 25.8% | 14.6% | +11.2 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Videm's win probability at 68.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.3%, a difference of 23.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Dobrovce win 2–3.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Videm; match finished Dobrovce
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Videm by 23.5 percentage points (68.8% vs model 45.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Videm 45.3% · Draw 28.9% · Dobrovce 25.8%
- xG · Videm 1.51 — Dobrovce 1.09
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Videm 1.29 · Draw 5.38 · Dobrovce 6.07
- Implied 1X2 · Videm 68.9% · Draw 16.5% · Dobrovce 14.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Videm 1.29 · Draw 5.38 · Dobrovce 6.07
- Implied 1X2 · Videm 68.9% · Draw 16.5% · Dobrovce 14.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 08:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Dobrovce win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (24 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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3. SNL - East — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Odranci | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 | NK Ormoz | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 3 | Fužinar | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Šmartno | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Podvinci | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Hajdina | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Čarda Martjanci | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Ljutomer | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Videm | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Korotan Prevalje | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Dobrovce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 12 | Šampion Celje | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | Limbuš Pekre | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 14 | Rače | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Odranci | 6 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 16 |
| 2 | Fužinar | 6 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 12 |
| 3 | Čarda Martjanci | 6 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 8 |
| 4 | Šmartno | 6 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 10 |
| 5 | NK Ormoz | 6 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 13 |
| 6 | Hajdina | 7 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 9 |
| 7 | Videm | 7 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 8 |
| 8 | Podvinci | 6 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Ljutomer | 6 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | Šampion Celje | 6 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 4 |
| 11 | Dobrovce | 6 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Korotan Prevalje | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | Rače | 6 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 |
| 14 | Limbuš Pekre | 6 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 4 |
