The model missed the final outcome (Odranci win 5–3).
The model had projected Fužinar at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Fužinar Odranci ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odranci | 32.4% | 38.3% | -5.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.0% | +3.6 pp | Aligned |
| Fužinar | 38.0% | 35.7% | +2.3 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Odranci's win probability at 38.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Odranci win 5–3.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Odranci. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Fužinar by 5.9 percentage points (43.9% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Odranci 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Fužinar 38.0%
- xG · Odranci 1.24 — Fužinar 1.36
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Odranci 2.32 · Draw 3.42 · Fužinar 2.49
- Implied 1X2 · Odranci 38.3% · Draw 26.0% · Fužinar 35.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Odranci 2.32 · Draw 3.42 · Fužinar 2.49
- Implied 1X2 · Odranci 38.3% · Draw 26.0% · Fužinar 35.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Odranci win · 5–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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3. SNL - East — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Odranci | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 | NK Ormoz | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 3 | Fužinar | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Šmartno | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Podvinci | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Hajdina | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Čarda Martjanci | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Ljutomer | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Videm | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Korotan Prevalje | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Dobrovce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 12 | Šampion Celje | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | Limbuš Pekre | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 14 | Rače | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Odranci | 6 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 16 |
| 2 | Fužinar | 6 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 12 |
| 3 | Čarda Martjanci | 6 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 8 |
| 4 | Šmartno | 6 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 10 |
| 5 | NK Ormoz | 6 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 13 |
| 6 | Hajdina | 7 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 9 |
| 7 | Videm | 7 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 8 |
| 8 | Podvinci | 6 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Ljutomer | 6 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | Šampion Celje | 6 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 4 |
| 11 | Dobrovce | 6 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Korotan Prevalje | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | Rače | 6 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 |
| 14 | Limbuš Pekre | 6 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 4 |
