Predictions / Football / Slovenia. 3. SNL - East / Korotan Prevalje vs Šmartno

Prediction Audit: Korotan Prevalje vs Šmartno Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Korotan Prevalje Korotan Prevalje
Aug 22, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.30
0 1.30
xG Accuracy: 49%
Šmartno Šmartno

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Korotan Prevalje at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Korotan Prevalje Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Korotan Prevalje; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 02:52 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Korotan Prevalje 1.30 — Šmartno 1.30
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 02:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4239127

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Korotan Prevalje 0–0 Šmartno
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. SNL - East
  • Fixture: Korotan Prevalje vs Šmartno
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Korotan Prevalje 1.3 — Šmartno 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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3. SNL - East 3. SNL - East — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Odranci 8 6 2 0 20
2 Šmartno 8 5 1 2 16
3 Fužinar 8 5 1 2 16
4 NK Ormoz 8 5 1 2 16
5 Podvinci 9 4 2 3 14
6 Hajdina 9 3 4 2 13
7 Čarda Martjanci 8 3 3 2 12
8 Korotan Prevalje 8 2 5 1 11
9 Videm 9 3 2 4 11
10 Rače 8 2 3 3 9
11 Ljutomer 9 2 2 5 8
12 Dobrovce 8 2 0 6 6
13 Šampion Celje 8 1 1 6 4
14 Limbuš Pekre 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Fužinar 8 27 20 +7 16
2 Odranci 8 24 11 +13 20
3 Šmartno 8 22 14 +8 16
4 NK Ormoz 8 21 14 +7 16
5 Čarda Martjanci 8 20 15 +5 12
6 Hajdina 9 16 15 +1 13
7 Podvinci 9 15 17 -2 14
8 Videm 9 15 19 -4 11
9 Korotan Prevalje 8 13 11 +2 11
10 Ljutomer 9 12 14 -2 8
11 Šampion Celje 8 11 19 -8 4
12 Dobrovce 8 11 23 -12 6
13 Rače 8 9 9 0 9
14 Limbuš Pekre 8 6 21 -15 4
3. SNL - East Slovenia. 3. SNL - East Predictions