Predictions / Football / Luxembourg. National Division / US Mondorf-les-bains vs UNA Strassen

Prediction Audit: US Mondorf-les-bains vs UNA Strassen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

US Mondorf-les-bains US Mondorf-les-bains
Sep 13, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.30
2 1.30
xG Accuracy: 76%
UNA Strassen UNA Strassen

The model missed the final outcome (UNA Strassen win 1–2).

The model had projected US Mondorf-les-bains at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 US Mondorf-les-bains UNA Strassen ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices UNA Strassen higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: UNA Strassen -8.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
US Mondorf-les-bains 35.2% 27.1% +8.1 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 28.8% +0.8 pp Aligned
UNA Strassen 35.2% 44.1% -8.9 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates UNA Strassen's win probability at 44.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 8.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was UNA Strassen win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on UNA Strassen. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned US Mondorf-les-bains; match finished UNA Strassen

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on US Mondorf-les-bains by 8.9 percentage points (44.1% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 13, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · US Mondorf-les-bains 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · UNA Strassen 35.2%
    • xG · US Mondorf-les-bains 1.30 — UNA Strassen 1.30
  2. Sep 13, 2026 · 13:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · US Mondorf-les-bains 3.38 · Draw 3.18 · UNA Strassen 2.08
    • Implied 1X2 · US Mondorf-les-bains 27.1% · Draw 28.8% · UNA Strassen 44.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 13, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · US Mondorf-les-bains 3.38 · Draw 3.18 · UNA Strassen 2.08
    • Implied 1X2 · US Mondorf-les-bains 27.1% · Draw 28.8% · UNA Strassen 44.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 13, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result UNA Strassen win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 19/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7443010

Closing Odds 2.08
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result UNA Strassen win · US Mondorf-les-bains 1–2 UNA Strassen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: National Division
  • Fixture: US Mondorf-les-bains vs UNA Strassen
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): US Mondorf-les-bains 1.3 — UNA Strassen 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.3%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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National Division National Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 UNA Strassen 8 8 0 0 24
2 FC Differdange 03 8 7 0 1 21
3 US Mondorf-les-bains 8 6 0 2 18
4 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 8 5 2 1 17
5 Progres Niederkorn 8 5 1 2 16
6 UN Kaerjeng 97 8 5 0 3 15
7 Atert Bissen 8 5 0 3 15
8 Résidence Walferdange 8 5 0 3 15
9 US Hostert 8 3 2 3 11
10 AS Jeunesse Esch 8 2 1 5 7
11 F91 Dudelange 8 2 1 5 7
12 US Rumelange 8 2 0 6 6
13 Victoria Rosport 8 1 2 5 5
14 Etzella Ettelbruck 8 1 2 5 5
15 Wiltz 8 1 1 6 4
16 Swift Hesperange 8 0 0 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 UN Kaerjeng 97 8 23 15 +8 15
2 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 8 21 8 +13 17
3 FC Differdange 03 8 19 5 +14 21
4 Atert Bissen 8 18 11 +7 15
5 UNA Strassen 8 17 2 +15 24
6 Résidence Walferdange 8 16 10 +6 15
7 US Mondorf-les-bains 8 16 11 +5 18
8 US Hostert 8 14 11 +3 11
9 AS Jeunesse Esch 8 14 17 -3 7
10 Wiltz 8 14 22 -8 4
11 Progres Niederkorn 8 13 5 +8 16
12 Victoria Rosport 8 11 20 -9 5
13 F91 Dudelange 8 8 15 -7 7
14 US Rumelange 8 8 23 -15 6
15 Etzella Ettelbruck 8 6 15 -9 5
16 Swift Hesperange 8 2 30 -28