The model missed the final outcome (US Mondorf-les-bains win 1–2).
The model had projected Atert Bissen at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Atert Bissen US Mondorf-les-bains ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atert Bissen | 38.0% | 42.2% | -4.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.4% | +3.2 pp | Aligned |
| US Mondorf-les-bains | 32.4% | 31.4% | +1.0 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was US Mondorf-les-bains win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was US Mondorf-les-bains win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Atert Bissen 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · US Mondorf-les-bains 32.4%
- xG · Atert Bissen 1.36 — US Mondorf-les-bains 1.24
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Atert Bissen 2.17 · Draw 3.47 · US Mondorf-les-bains 2.92
- Implied 1X2 · Atert Bissen 42.2% · Draw 26.4% · US Mondorf-les-bains 31.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Atert Bissen 2.17 · Draw 3.47 · US Mondorf-les-bains 2.92
- Implied 1X2 · Atert Bissen 42.2% · Draw 26.4% · US Mondorf-les-bains 31.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result US Mondorf-les-bains win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore More Predictions Content
Get Premium Predictions for Atert Bissen & US Mondorf-les-bains!
Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.
Subscribe Now
National Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | FC Differdange 03 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 3 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 4 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 5 | Progres Niederkorn | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Atert Bissen | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Résidence Walferdange | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | US Hostert | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | F91 Dudelange | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 12 | US Rumelange | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 13 | Victoria Rosport | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 14 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 15 | Wiltz | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 8 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 8 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 17 |
| 3 | FC Differdange 03 | 8 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 21 |
| 4 | Atert Bissen | 8 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 15 |
| 5 | UNA Strassen | 8 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 24 |
| 6 | Résidence Walferdange | 8 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 7 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 8 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 18 |
| 8 | US Hostert | 8 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 11 |
| 9 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 8 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Wiltz | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 4 |
| 11 | Progres Niederkorn | 8 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 16 |
| 12 | Victoria Rosport | 8 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 5 |
| 13 | F91 Dudelange | 8 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 7 |
| 14 | US Rumelange | 8 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 6 |
| 15 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 8 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 8 | 2 | 30 | -28 |
