Predictions / Football / Luxembourg. National Division / Atert Bissen vs Progres Niederkorn

Prediction Audit: Atert Bissen vs Progres Niederkorn Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Atert Bissen Atert Bissen
Aug 16, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.49
4 1.11
xG Accuracy: 30%
Progres Niederkorn Progres Niederkorn

The model missed the final outcome (Progres Niederkorn win 0–4).

The model had projected Atert Bissen at 44.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Atert Bissen Progres Niederkorn ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Atert Bissen -4.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Atert Bissen 44.3% 48.9% -4.6 pp Aligned
Draw 29.0% 26.1% +2.9 pp Aligned
Progres Niederkorn 26.6% 24.9% +1.7 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Progres Niederkorn win 0–4.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Progres Niederkorn win 0–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Atert Bissen 44.3% · Draw 29.0% · Progres Niederkorn 26.7%
    • xG · Atert Bissen 1.49 — Progres Niederkorn 1.11
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 13:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Atert Bissen 1.87 · Draw 3.50 · Progres Niederkorn 3.67
    • Implied 1X2 · Atert Bissen 48.9% · Draw 26.1% · Progres Niederkorn 24.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Atert Bissen 1.87 · Draw 3.50 · Progres Niederkorn 3.67
    • Implied 1X2 · Atert Bissen 48.9% · Draw 26.1% · Progres Niederkorn 24.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Progres Niederkorn win · 0–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 77/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3607172

Closing Odds 1.87
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Progres Niederkorn win · Atert Bissen 0–4 Progres Niederkorn
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: National Division
  • Fixture: Atert Bissen vs Progres Niederkorn
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.3% · Draw 29.0% · Away 26.7%
  • xG (showing): Atert Bissen 1.49 — Progres Niederkorn 1.11 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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National Division National Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 UNA Strassen 8 8 0 0 24
2 FC Differdange 03 8 7 0 1 21
3 US Mondorf-les-bains 8 6 0 2 18
4 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 8 5 2 1 17
5 Progres Niederkorn 8 5 1 2 16
6 UN Kaerjeng 97 8 5 0 3 15
7 Atert Bissen 8 5 0 3 15
8 Résidence Walferdange 8 5 0 3 15
9 US Hostert 8 3 2 3 11
10 AS Jeunesse Esch 8 2 1 5 7
11 F91 Dudelange 8 2 1 5 7
12 US Rumelange 8 2 0 6 6
13 Victoria Rosport 8 1 2 5 5
14 Etzella Ettelbruck 8 1 2 5 5
15 Wiltz 8 1 1 6 4
16 Swift Hesperange 8 0 0 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 UN Kaerjeng 97 8 23 15 +8 15
2 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 8 21 8 +13 17
3 FC Differdange 03 8 19 5 +14 21
4 Atert Bissen 8 18 11 +7 15
5 UNA Strassen 8 17 2 +15 24
6 Résidence Walferdange 8 16 10 +6 15
7 US Mondorf-les-bains 8 16 11 +5 18
8 US Hostert 8 14 11 +3 11
9 AS Jeunesse Esch 8 14 17 -3 7
10 Wiltz 8 14 22 -8 4
11 Progres Niederkorn 8 13 5 +8 16
12 Victoria Rosport 8 11 20 -9 5
13 F91 Dudelange 8 8 15 -7 7
14 US Rumelange 8 8 23 -15 6
15 Etzella Ettelbruck 8 6 15 -9 5
16 Swift Hesperange 8 2 30 -28