AI correctly predicted the San Antonio win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 San Antonio San Antonio ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio | 37.5% | 45.5% | -7.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.1% | +2.5 pp | Aligned |
| Miami FC | 32.9% | 27.4% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates San Antonio's win probability at 45.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 7.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (San Antonio win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on San Antonio. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced San Antonio higher (45.4% vs model 37.5%, 7.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (San Antonio win 2–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 13, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · San Antonio 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Miami FC 32.9%
- xG · San Antonio 1.35 — Miami FC 1.25
-
Aug 12, 2026 · 23:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · San Antonio 1.94 · Draw 3.25 · Miami FC 3.22
- Implied 1X2 · San Antonio 45.5% · Draw 27.1% · Miami FC 27.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 13, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · San Antonio 1.94 · Draw 3.25 · Miami FC 3.22
- Implied 1X2 · San Antonio 45.5% · Draw 27.1% · Miami FC 27.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 13, 2026 · 00:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result San Antonio win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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USL League One Cup — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Louisville City | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Colorado Springs | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 4 | San Antonio | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 5 | Charlotte Independence | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Miami FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Charleston Battery | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Birmingham Legion | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Hartford Athletic | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Rhode Island | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Sacramento Republic | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 12 | Boise | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | New Mexico United | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 14 | Indy Eleven | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 15 | One Knoxville | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 16 | Spokane Velocity | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 17 | Brooklyn | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 18 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 19 | Lexington | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 20 | El Paso Locomotive | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 21 | Detroit City | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 22 | Alta | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 23 | Union Omaha | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 24 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 25 | Monterey Bay | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 26 | Oakland Roots | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 27 | Sporting JAX | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 28 | FC Tulsa | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 29 | Greenville Triumph | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 30 | Las Vegas Lights | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 31 | Loudoun United | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 32 | Forward Madison | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 33 | Westchester SC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 34 | Corpus Christi | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 35 | Phoenix Rising | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 36 | NY Cosmos | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 37 | Naples | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 38 | Richmond Kickers | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 39 | Sarasota Paradise | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 40 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 41 | Fort Wayne | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 42 | Orange County SC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Louisville City | 4 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 2 | Miami FC | 4 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 9 |
| 3 | Colorado Springs | 4 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 12 |
| 4 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 4 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 12 |
| 5 | Union Omaha | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 6 |
| 6 | Charleston Battery | 4 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 7 | Brooklyn | 4 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 |
| 8 | Boise | 4 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 9 |
| 9 | Birmingham Legion | 4 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 10 | Hartford Athletic | 4 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 11 | Charlotte Independence | 4 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 12 |
| 12 | New Mexico United | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
| 13 | Lexington | 4 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Monterey Bay | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Rhode Island | 4 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 16 | Sacramento Republic | 4 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 17 | Indy Eleven | 4 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 18 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 |
| 19 | San Antonio | 4 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 12 |
| 20 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 4 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 21 | One Knoxville | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 22 | Spokane Velocity | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 23 | Forward Madison | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3 |
| 24 | Westchester SC | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3 |
| 25 | Fort Wayne | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 0 |
| 26 | El Paso Locomotive | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 27 | Alta | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 28 | NY Cosmos | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
| 29 | Detroit City | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 30 | Oakland Roots | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 31 | FC Tulsa | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 32 | Greenville Triumph | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 33 | Las Vegas Lights | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 34 | Loudoun United | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 35 | Sporting JAX | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 36 | Phoenix Rising | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3 |
| 37 | Naples | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 |
| 38 | Richmond Kickers | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 |
| 39 | Orange County SC | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 0 |
| 40 | Corpus Christi | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 41 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
| 42 | Sarasota Paradise | 4 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 3 |
