AI correctly predicted the Hartford Athletic win.
The match finished 2–4, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
B-
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-4 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Independence | 32.4% | 32.2% | +0.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.7% | +2.9 pp | Aligned |
| Hartford Athletic | 38.0% | 41.1% | -3.1 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Hartford Athletic win 2–4).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Hartford Athletic win 2–4).
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 12, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Charlotte Independence 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Hartford Athletic 38.0%
- xG · Charlotte Independence 1.24 — Hartford Athletic 1.36
-
Aug 12, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Charlotte Independence 2.66 · Draw 3.21 · Hartford Athletic 2.08
- Implied 1X2 · Charlotte Independence 32.2% · Draw 26.7% · Hartford Athletic 41.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 12, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Charlotte Independence 2.66 · Draw 3.21 · Hartford Athletic 2.08
- Implied 1X2 · Charlotte Independence 32.2% · Draw 26.7% · Hartford Athletic 41.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 12, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Hartford Athletic win · 2–4
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
84/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.08
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Hartford Athletic win · Charlotte Independence 2–4 Hartford Athletic
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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USL League One Cup — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Louisville City | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Colorado Springs | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 4 | San Antonio | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 5 | Charlotte Independence | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Miami FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Charleston Battery | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Birmingham Legion | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Hartford Athletic | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Rhode Island | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Sacramento Republic | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 12 | Boise | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | New Mexico United | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 14 | Indy Eleven | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 15 | One Knoxville | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 16 | Spokane Velocity | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 17 | Brooklyn | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 18 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 19 | Lexington | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 20 | El Paso Locomotive | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 21 | Detroit City | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 22 | Alta | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 23 | Union Omaha | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 24 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 25 | Monterey Bay | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 26 | Oakland Roots | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 27 | Sporting JAX | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 28 | FC Tulsa | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 29 | Greenville Triumph | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 30 | Las Vegas Lights | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 31 | Loudoun United | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 32 | Forward Madison | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 33 | Westchester SC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 34 | Corpus Christi | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 35 | Phoenix Rising | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 36 | NY Cosmos | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 37 | Naples | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 38 | Richmond Kickers | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 39 | Sarasota Paradise | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 40 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 41 | Fort Wayne | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 42 | Orange County SC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Louisville City | 4 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 2 | Miami FC | 4 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 9 |
| 3 | Colorado Springs | 4 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 12 |
| 4 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 4 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 12 |
| 5 | Union Omaha | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 6 |
| 6 | Charleston Battery | 4 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 7 | Brooklyn | 4 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 |
| 8 | Boise | 4 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 9 |
| 9 | Birmingham Legion | 4 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 10 | Hartford Athletic | 4 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 11 | Charlotte Independence | 4 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 12 |
| 12 | New Mexico United | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
| 13 | Lexington | 4 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Monterey Bay | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Rhode Island | 4 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 16 | Sacramento Republic | 4 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 17 | Indy Eleven | 4 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 18 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 |
| 19 | San Antonio | 4 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 12 |
| 20 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 4 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 21 | One Knoxville | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 22 | Spokane Velocity | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 23 | Forward Madison | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3 |
| 24 | Westchester SC | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3 |
| 25 | Fort Wayne | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 0 |
| 26 | El Paso Locomotive | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 27 | Alta | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 28 | NY Cosmos | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
| 29 | Detroit City | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 30 | Oakland Roots | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 31 | FC Tulsa | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 32 | Greenville Triumph | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 33 | Las Vegas Lights | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 34 | Loudoun United | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 35 | Sporting JAX | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 36 | Phoenix Rising | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3 |
| 37 | Naples | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 |
| 38 | Richmond Kickers | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 |
| 39 | Orange County SC | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 0 |
| 40 | Corpus Christi | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 41 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
| 42 | Sarasota Paradise | 4 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 3 |
