Predictions / Football / Brazil. Carioca C / Barra Mansa vs Búzios

Prediction Audit: Barra Mansa vs Búzios Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Barra Mansa Barra Mansa
Jul 23, 2026 - 17:45
0 1.43
2 1.17
xG Accuracy: 54%
Búzios Búzios

The model missed the final outcome (Búzios win 0–2).

The model had projected Barra Mansa at 44.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Barra Mansa Búzios ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Barra Mansa higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Barra Mansa -7.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Barra Mansa 44.3% 51.2% -7.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.9% 26.4% +2.6 pp Aligned
Búzios 26.8% 22.4% +4.4 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Barra Mansa's win probability at 51.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.3%, a difference of 7.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Búzios win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Barra Mansa. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Barra Mansa; match finished Búzios

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Barra Mansa by 7.0 percentage points (51.2% vs model 44.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 23, 2026 · 19:41 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Barra Mansa 44.3% · Draw 28.9% · Búzios 26.8%
    • xG · Barra Mansa 1.43 — Búzios 1.17
  2. Jul 23, 2026 · 17:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Barra Mansa 1.75 · Draw 3.40 · Búzios 4.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Barra Mansa 51.2% · Draw 26.4% · Búzios 22.4%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Jul 23, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Barra Mansa 1.75 · Draw 3.40 · Búzios 4.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Barra Mansa 51.2% · Draw 26.4% · Búzios 22.4%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. Jul 23, 2026 · 17:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Búzios win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 65/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1449013

Closing Odds 1.75
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Búzios win · Barra Mansa 0–2 Búzios
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Carioca Série C
  • Fixture: Barra Mansa vs Búzios
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-23 17:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.3% · Draw 28.9% · Away 26.8%
  • xG (showing): Barra Mansa 1.43 — Búzios 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Carioca C Carioca C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cardoso Moreira 6 6 0 0 18
2 Campos AA 6 4 2 0 14
3 Tigres do Brasil 6 4 1 1 13
4 Barra Mansa 6 4 0 2 12
5 Brescia Clube 6 3 1 2 10
6 Búzios 6 2 3 1 9
7 EC Resende 6 3 0 3 9
8 Ceres 6 3 0 3 9
9 Uni Souza 6 2 1 3 7
10 Mageense 6 2 1 3 7
11 Uniao Central 6 2 1 3 7
12 Itaborai Profute 6 1 3 2 6
13 Independente RJ 6 1 2 3 5
14 CAAC Brasil 6 1 1 4 4
15 EC Vera Cruz 6 1 0 5 3
16 Barcelona RJ 6 1 0 5 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Campos AA 6 12 5 +7 14
2 Cardoso Moreira 6 11 0 +11 18
3 Tigres do Brasil 6 10 5 +5 13
4 EC Resende 6 10 9 +1 9
5 Ceres 6 10 11 -1 9
6 Uniao Central 6 10 11 -1 7
7 Uni Souza 6 9 7 +2 7
8 Itaborai Profute 6 9 9 0 6
9 Brescia Clube 6 8 4 +4 10
10 Búzios 6 8 6 +2 9
11 Barra Mansa 6 7 3 +4 12
12 EC Vera Cruz 6 7 14 -7 3
13 Mageense 6 6 13 -7 7
14 CAAC Brasil 6 6 13 -7 4
15 Independente RJ 6 4 6 -2 5
16 Barcelona RJ 6 3 14 -11 3