Predictions / Football / Brazil. Carioca C / Búzios vs Barra Mansa

Prediction Audit: Búzios vs Barra Mansa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Búzios Búzios
Jul 19, 2026 - 17:00
3 1.21
0 1.39
xG Accuracy: 42%
Barra Mansa Barra Mansa

The model missed the final outcome (Búzios win 3–0).

The model had projected Barra Mansa at 36.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Barra Mansa Búzios ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Búzios higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Búzios -7.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Búzios 33.8% 41.4% -7.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 28.4% +1.1 pp Aligned
Barra Mansa 36.7% 30.2% +6.5 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Búzios's win probability at 41.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 7.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Búzios win 3–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Búzios. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Barra Mansa by 7.6 percentage points (44.3% vs model 36.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 19, 2026 · 19:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Búzios 33.8% · Draw 29.5% · Barra Mansa 36.8%
    • xG · Búzios 1.21 — Barra Mansa 1.39
  2. Jul 19, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Búzios 2.15 · Draw 3.13 · Barra Mansa 2.94
    • Implied 1X2 · Búzios 41.4% · Draw 28.4% · Barra Mansa 30.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 19, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Búzios 2.15 · Draw 3.13 · Barra Mansa 2.94
    • Implied 1X2 · Búzios 41.4% · Draw 28.4% · Barra Mansa 30.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 19, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Búzios win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 21/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 22:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3217742

Closing Odds 2.15
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Búzios win · Búzios 3–0 Barra Mansa
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Carioca Série C
  • Fixture: Búzios vs Barra Mansa
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-19 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Búzios 1.21 — Barra Mansa 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Carioca C Carioca C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cardoso Moreira 6 6 0 0 18
2 Campos AA 6 4 2 0 14
3 Tigres do Brasil 6 4 1 1 13
4 Barra Mansa 6 4 0 2 12
5 Brescia Clube 6 3 1 2 10
6 Búzios 6 2 3 1 9
7 EC Resende 6 3 0 3 9
8 Ceres 6 3 0 3 9
9 Uni Souza 6 2 1 3 7
10 Mageense 6 2 1 3 7
11 Uniao Central 6 2 1 3 7
12 Itaborai Profute 6 1 3 2 6
13 Independente RJ 6 1 2 3 5
14 CAAC Brasil 6 1 1 4 4
15 EC Vera Cruz 6 1 0 5 3
16 Barcelona RJ 6 1 0 5 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Campos AA 6 12 5 +7 14
2 Cardoso Moreira 6 11 0 +11 18
3 Tigres do Brasil 6 10 5 +5 13
4 EC Resende 6 10 9 +1 9
5 Ceres 6 10 11 -1 9
6 Uniao Central 6 10 11 -1 7
7 Uni Souza 6 9 7 +2 7
8 Itaborai Profute 6 9 9 0 6
9 Brescia Clube 6 8 4 +4 10
10 Búzios 6 8 6 +2 9
11 Barra Mansa 6 7 3 +4 12
12 EC Vera Cruz 6 7 14 -7 3
13 Mageense 6 6 13 -7 7
14 CAAC Brasil 6 6 13 -7 4
15 Independente RJ 6 4 6 -2 5
16 Barcelona RJ 6 3 14 -11 3