Predictions / Football / Brazil. Serie D / Treze vs Sao Jose

Prediction Audit: Treze vs Sao Jose Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Treze Treze
Jul 26, 2026 - 20:00
1(0) 1.17
0(3) 1.43
xG Accuracy: 64%
Sao Jose Sao Jose

The model missed the final outcome (Treze win 1–0).

The model had projected Sao Jose at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 São José Treze ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Sao Jose considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Sao Jose +19.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Treze 29.2% 45.7% -16.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 32.0% -2.6 pp Aligned
Sao Jose 41.4% 22.3% +19.1 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Sao Jose's win probability at 41.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.3%, a difference of 19.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Treze win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Sao Jose.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned São José; match finished Treze

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sao Jose by 19.1 percentage points (22.3% vs model 41.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 26, 2026 · 20:28 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Treze 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Sao Jose 41.4%
    • xG · Treze 1.17 — Sao Jose 1.43
  2. Jul 26, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Treze 1.98 · Draw 2.83 · Sao Jose 4.06
    • Implied 1X2 · Treze 45.7% · Draw 32.0% · Sao Jose 22.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 26, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Treze 1.98 · Draw 2.83 · Sao Jose 4.06
    • Implied 1X2 · Treze 45.7% · Draw 32.0% · Sao Jose 22.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 26, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Treze win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (19 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 1/100
Monitoring Confidence 18/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1454746

Closing Odds 4.06
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Treze win · Treze 1–0 Sao Jose
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Campeonato Brasileiro Série D
  • Fixture: Treze vs São José
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-26 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.4%
  • xG (showing): Treze 1.17 — São José 1.43 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.6%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D Serie D — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Manauara 10 6 4 0 22
2 Nacional AM 10 6 2 2 20
3 Sao Raimundo 10 3 4 3 13
4 Monte Roraima 10 2 4 4 10
5 Manaus FC 10 2 4 4 10
6 GAS 10 1 2 7 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nacional AM 10 15 9 +6 20
2 Manauara 10 13 5 +8 22
3 Monte Roraima 10 11 14 -3 10
4 Sao Raimundo 10 10 7 +3 13
5 Manaus FC 10 8 13 -5 10
6 GAS 10 8 17 -9 5