Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / União Santarém vs Academica

Prediction Audit: União Santarém vs Academica Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

União Santarém União Santarém
Jul 31, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.35
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 49%
Academica Academica

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected União Santarém at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 União Santarém Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Academica higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Academica -17.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
União Santarém 37.5% 24.5% +13.0 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 25.4% +4.3 pp Aligned
Academica 32.9% 50.1% -17.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Academica's win probability at 50.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 17.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Academica than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned União Santarém; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on União Santarém by 17.2 percentage points (54.8% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 31, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · União Santarém 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Academica 32.9%
    • xG · União Santarém 1.35 — Academica 1.25
  2. Jul 31, 2026 · 17:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · União Santarém 3.45 · Draw 3.34 · Academica 1.69
    • Implied 1X2 · União Santarém 24.5% · Draw 25.4% · Academica 50.1%
    • Bookmaker · SBO
  3. Jul 31, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · União Santarém 3.45 · Draw 3.34 · Academica 1.69
    • Implied 1X2 · União Santarém 24.5% · Draw 25.4% · Academica 50.1%
    • Bookmaker · SBO
  4. Jul 31, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 4/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 04:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1676966

Closing Odds 1.69
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · União Santarém 0–0 Academica
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Friendlies Clubs
  • Fixture: União Santarém vs Academica
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-31 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): União Santarém 1.35 — Academica 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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