Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz vs Austria Lustenau

Prediction Audit: Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz vs Austria Lustenau Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
Jul 15, 2026 - 08:30
1 1.30
1 1.30
xG Accuracy: 85%
Austria Lustenau Austria Lustenau

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Austria Lustenau at 39.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Austria Lustenau Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Austria Lustenau higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Austria Lustenau -8.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 32.6% 26.8% +5.8 pp Model Higher
Draw 28.1% 25.0% +3.1 pp Aligned
Austria Lustenau 39.3% 48.2% -8.9 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Austria Lustenau's win probability at 48.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.3%, a difference of 8.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Austria Lustenau. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Austria Lustenau; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Austria Lustenau by 8.9 percentage points (48.2% vs model 39.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 15, 2026 · 19:11 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 32.6% · Draw 28.1% · Austria Lustenau 39.3%
    • xG · Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 1.30 — Austria Lustenau 1.30
  2. Jul 15, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 3.29 · Draw 3.53 · Austria Lustenau 1.83
    • Implied 1X2 · Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 26.8% · Draw 25.0% · Austria Lustenau 48.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 15, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 3.29 · Draw 3.53 · Austria Lustenau 1.83
    • Implied 1X2 · Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 26.8% · Draw 25.0% · Austria Lustenau 48.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 15, 2026 · 08:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 55/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 10, 2026 · 14:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3547506

Closing Odds 1.83
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 1–1 Austria Lustenau
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Club Friendlies
  • Fixture: Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz vs Austria Lustenau
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-15 08:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 1.3 — Austria Lustenau 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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