The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Madureira at 35.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Madureira Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madureira | 35.7% | 42.3% | -6.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.8% | 29.0% | +0.8 pp | Aligned |
| Bonsucesso | 34.5% | 28.8% | +5.8 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Madureira's win probability at 42.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.7%, a difference of 6.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Madureira. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Madureira; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Madureira by 6.6 percentage points (42.3% vs model 35.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 22, 2026 · 19:46 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Madureira 35.7% · Draw 29.7% · Bonsucesso 34.6%
- xG · Madureira 1.25 — Bonsucesso 1.35
-
Jul 22, 2026 · 17:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Madureira 2.09 · Draw 3.05 · Bonsucesso 3.07
- Implied 1X2 · Madureira 42.3% · Draw 29.0% · Bonsucesso 28.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 22, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Madureira 2.09 · Draw 3.05 · Bonsucesso 3.07
- Implied 1X2 · Madureira 42.3% · Draw 29.0% · Bonsucesso 28.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 22, 2026 · 17:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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