The model missed the final outcome (São Gonçalo EC RJ win 2–1).
The model had projected Volta Redonda at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Volta Redonda São Gonçalo EC RJ ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Gonçalo EC RJ | 30.4% | 22.2% | +8.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 30.1% | 31.7% | -1.7 pp | Aligned |
| Volta Redonda | 39.5% | 46.1% | -6.6 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates São Gonçalo EC RJ's win probability at 30.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.2%, a difference of 8.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was São Gonçalo EC RJ win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on São Gonçalo EC RJ.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Volta Redonda; match finished São Gonçalo EC RJ
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Volta Redonda by 8.3 percentage points (31.2% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 16, 2026 · 19:17 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · São Gonçalo EC RJ 30.5% · Draw 30.0% · Volta Redonda 39.5%
- xG · São Gonçalo EC RJ 1.27 — Volta Redonda 1.33
-
Jul 16, 2026 · 17:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · São Gonçalo EC RJ 3.99 · Draw 2.79 · Volta Redonda 1.92
- Implied 1X2 · São Gonçalo EC RJ 22.2% · Draw 31.7% · Volta Redonda 46.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 16, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · São Gonçalo EC RJ 3.99 · Draw 2.79 · Volta Redonda 1.92
- Implied 1X2 · São Gonçalo EC RJ 22.2% · Draw 31.7% · Volta Redonda 46.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 16, 2026 · 17:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result São Gonçalo EC RJ win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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