The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).
The model had projected Rochdale at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Rochdale Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rochdale | 37.1% | 46.0% | -8.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.9% | +4.7 pp | Aligned |
| Liverpool U21 | 33.3% | 29.1% | +4.2 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Rochdale's win probability at 46.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 8.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 3–3.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Rochdale. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Rochdale by 8.9 percentage points (46.0% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Rochdale 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Liverpool U21 33.4%
- xG · Rochdale 1.34 — Liverpool U21 1.26
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Rochdale 2.02 · Draw 3.72 · Liverpool U21 3.19
- Implied 1X2 · Rochdale 46.0% · Draw 24.9% · Liverpool U21 29.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Rochdale 2.02 · Draw 3.72 · Liverpool U21 3.19
- Implied 1X2 · Rochdale 46.0% · Draw 24.9% · Liverpool U21 29.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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