Prediction Audit: Walton & Hersham vs Farnborough Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Walton & Hersham

Sep 26, 2026 - 14:00

2 1.34

2 1.26

xG Accuracy: 68%

Farnborough

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Walton & Hersham at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Walton & Hersham Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Walton & Hersham	37.1%	29.2%	+7.9 pp	Model Higher
Draw	29.6%	23.3%	+6.3 pp	Model Higher
Farnborough	33.3%	47.5%	-14.2 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Farnborough's win probability at 47.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 14.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Farnborough than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Walton & Hersham by 14.2 percentage points (51.3% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 26, 2026 · 14:07 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Walton & Hersham 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Farnborough 33.4%
- xG · Walton & Hersham 1.34 — Farnborough 1.26
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:46 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Walton & Hersham 3.17 · Draw 3.98 · Farnborough 1.95
- Implied 1X2 · Walton & Hersham 29.2% · Draw 23.3% · Farnborough 47.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:07 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Walton & Hersham 3.22 · Draw 4.03 · Farnborough 1.98
- Implied 1X2 · Walton & Hersham 29.2% · Draw 23.3% · Farnborough 47.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (14 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 10/100

Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10100763

Closing Odds 1.98

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Walton & Hersham 2–2 Farnborough

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: National League - South
Fixture: Walton & Hersham vs Farnborough
Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
xG (showing): Walton & Hersham 1.34 — Farnborough 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
Model: 45.5% · Implied: 32.2% · Probability edge: +13.3 pts · Est. EV: +45.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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National League - South — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	9	6	1	2	19
2	Weston-super-Mare	9	5	2	2	17
3	Dagenham & Redbridge	9	5	1	3	16
4	Salisbury	9	4	3	2	15
5	Billericay Town	9	4	3	2	15
6	Tonbridge Angels	9	4	2	3	14
7	Truro City	8	4	2	2	14
8	Dover	9	4	2	3	14
9	Dorking Wanderers	9	3	4	2	13
10	Torquay	9	3	4	2	13
11	Farnham Town	8	4	1	3	13
12	Folkestone Invicta	8	3	3	2	12
13	Chesham United	9	3	1	5	10
14	Chelmsford City	8	1	7	0	10
15	Horsham	8	2	4	2	10
16	Hemel Hempstead Town	9	2	4	3	10
17	Maidenhead	9	2	4	3	10
18	Braintree	8	3	1	4	10
19	AFC Totton	8	3	1	4	10
20	Farnborough	8	3	1	4	10
21	Hampton & Richmond	9	2	2	5	8
22	Ebbsfleet United	3	1	2	0	5
23	Slough Town	8	1	0	7	3
24	Walton & Hersham	8	0	1	7	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Tonbridge Angels	9	18	9	+9	14
2	Dorking Wanderers	9	18	13	+5	13
3	Billericay Town	9	18	14	+4	15
4	Maidstone Utd	9	17	9	+8	19
5	Weston-super-Mare	9	16	7	+9	17
6	Salisbury	9	16	7	+9	15
7	Chesham United	9	16	15	+1	10
8	Folkestone Invicta	8	15	9	+6	12
9	Dover	9	15	16	-1	14
10	Torquay	9	13	11	+2	13
11	Braintree	8	13	18	-5	10
12	Truro City	8	11	4	+7	14
13	Farnham Town	8	11	10	+1	13
14	Hampton & Richmond	9	11	23	-12	8
15	Dagenham & Redbridge	9	9	7	+2	16
16	Chelmsford City	8	9	8	+1	10
17	Horsham	8	9	10	-1	10
18	Slough Town	8	9	21	-12	3
19	Hemel Hempstead Town	9	8	10	-2	10
20	Maidenhead	9	8	11	-3	10
21	AFC Totton	8	8	13	-5	10
22	Farnborough	8	6	11	-5	10
23	Walton & Hersham	8	4	24	-20	1
24	Ebbsfleet United	3	3	1	+2	5