Prediction Audit: Billericay Town vs Torquay Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Billericay Town

Sep 26, 2026 - 14:00

3 1.24

0 1.36

xG Accuracy: 42%

Torquay

The model missed the final outcome (Billericay Town win 3–0).

The model had projected Torquay at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Torquay Billericay Town ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Billericay Town	32.4%	33.9%	-1.5 pp	Aligned
Draw	29.6%	24.0%	+5.6 pp	Model Higher
Torquay	38.0%	42.1%	-4.1 pp	Aligned

The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.0%, a difference of 5.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Billericay Town win 3–0.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
1X2: model leaned Torquay; match finished Billericay Town

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Torquay by 5.6 percentage points (32.4% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 26, 2026 · 14:06 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Billericay Town 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Torquay 38.0%
- xG · Billericay Town 1.24 — Torquay 1.36
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Billericay Town 2.95 · Draw 3.74 · Torquay 2.12
- Implied 1X2 · Billericay Town 31.4% · Draw 24.8% · Torquay 43.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:06 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Billericay Town 2.77 · Draw 3.91 · Torquay 2.23
- Implied 1X2 · Billericay Town 33.9% · Draw 24.0% · Torquay 42.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Billericay Town win · 3–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 72/100

Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10100314

Closing Odds 3.91

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Billericay Town win · Billericay Town 3–0 Torquay

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: National League - South
Fixture: Billericay Town vs Torquay
Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
xG (showing): Billericay Town 1.24 — Torquay 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 37.2% · Probability edge: +14.6 pts · Est. EV: +34.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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National League - South — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	9	6	1	2	19
2	Weston-super-Mare	9	5	2	2	17
3	Dagenham & Redbridge	9	5	1	3	16
4	Salisbury	9	4	3	2	15
5	Billericay Town	9	4	3	2	15
6	Tonbridge Angels	9	4	2	3	14
7	Truro City	8	4	2	2	14
8	Dover	9	4	2	3	14
9	Dorking Wanderers	9	3	4	2	13
10	Torquay	9	3	4	2	13
11	Farnham Town	8	4	1	3	13
12	Folkestone Invicta	8	3	3	2	12
13	Chesham United	9	3	1	5	10
14	Chelmsford City	8	1	7	0	10
15	Horsham	8	2	4	2	10
16	Hemel Hempstead Town	9	2	4	3	10
17	Maidenhead	9	2	4	3	10
18	Braintree	8	3	1	4	10
19	AFC Totton	8	3	1	4	10
20	Farnborough	8	3	1	4	10
21	Hampton & Richmond	9	2	2	5	8
22	Ebbsfleet United	3	1	2	0	5
23	Slough Town	8	1	0	7	3
24	Walton & Hersham	8	0	1	7	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Tonbridge Angels	9	18	9	+9	14
2	Dorking Wanderers	9	18	13	+5	13
3	Billericay Town	9	18	14	+4	15
4	Maidstone Utd	9	17	9	+8	19
5	Weston-super-Mare	9	16	7	+9	17
6	Salisbury	9	16	7	+9	15
7	Chesham United	9	16	15	+1	10
8	Folkestone Invicta	8	15	9	+6	12
9	Dover	9	15	16	-1	14
10	Torquay	9	13	11	+2	13
11	Braintree	8	13	18	-5	10
12	Truro City	8	11	4	+7	14
13	Farnham Town	8	11	10	+1	13
14	Hampton & Richmond	9	11	23	-12	8
15	Dagenham & Redbridge	9	9	7	+2	16
16	Chelmsford City	8	9	8	+1	10
17	Horsham	8	9	10	-1	10
18	Slough Town	8	9	21	-12	3
19	Hemel Hempstead Town	9	8	10	-2	10
20	Maidenhead	9	8	11	-3	10
21	AFC Totton	8	8	13	-5	10
22	Farnborough	8	6	11	-5	10
23	Walton & Hersham	8	4	24	-20	1
24	Ebbsfleet United	3	3	1	+2	5