Prediction Audit: Weston-super-Mare vs Chelmsford City Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Weston-super-Mare

Aug 31, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.31

1 1.29

xG Accuracy: 85%

Chelmsford City

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Weston-super-Mare at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Weston-super-Mare Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Weston-super-Mare	35.6%	37.7%	-2.0 pp	Aligned
Draw	29.6%	28.1%	+1.6 pp	Aligned
Chelmsford City	34.7%	34.2%	+0.5 pp	Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

1X2: model leaned Weston-super-Mare; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 31, 2026 · 13:54 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Weston-super-Mare 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Chelmsford City 34.7%
- xG · Weston-super-Mare 1.31 — Chelmsford City 1.29
Aug 31, 2026 · 13:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Weston-super-Mare 2.46 · Draw 3.30 · Chelmsford City 2.71
- Implied 1X2 · Weston-super-Mare 37.7% · Draw 28.1% · Chelmsford City 34.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 31, 2026 · 13:54 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Weston-super-Mare 2.46 · Draw 3.30 · Chelmsford City 2.71
- Implied 1X2 · Weston-super-Mare 37.7% · Draw 28.1% · Chelmsford City 34.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 31, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 89/100

Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 25, 2026 · 02:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5400726

Closing Odds 2.46

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Weston-super-Mare 1–1 Chelmsford City

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: National League - South
Fixture: Weston-super-Mare vs Chelmsford City
Kickoff: 2026-08-31 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): Weston-super-Mare 1.31 — Chelmsford City 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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National League - South — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	9	6	1	2	19
2	Weston-super-Mare	9	5	2	2	17
3	Dagenham & Redbridge	9	5	1	3	16
4	Salisbury	9	4	3	2	15
5	Billericay Town	9	4	3	2	15
6	Tonbridge Angels	9	4	2	3	14
7	Truro City	8	4	2	2	14
8	Dover	9	4	2	3	14
9	Dorking Wanderers	9	3	4	2	13
10	Torquay	9	3	4	2	13
11	Farnham Town	8	4	1	3	13
12	Folkestone Invicta	8	3	3	2	12
13	Chesham United	9	3	1	5	10
14	Chelmsford City	8	1	7	0	10
15	Horsham	8	2	4	2	10
16	Hemel Hempstead Town	9	2	4	3	10
17	Maidenhead	9	2	4	3	10
18	Braintree	8	3	1	4	10
19	AFC Totton	8	3	1	4	10
20	Farnborough	8	3	1	4	10
21	Hampton & Richmond	9	2	2	5	8
22	Ebbsfleet United	3	1	2	0	5
23	Slough Town	8	1	0	7	3
24	Walton & Hersham	8	0	1	7	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Tonbridge Angels	9	18	9	+9	14
2	Dorking Wanderers	9	18	13	+5	13
3	Billericay Town	9	18	14	+4	15
4	Maidstone Utd	9	17	9	+8	19
5	Weston-super-Mare	9	16	7	+9	17
6	Salisbury	9	16	7	+9	15
7	Chesham United	9	16	15	+1	10
8	Folkestone Invicta	8	15	9	+6	12
9	Dover	9	15	16	-1	14
10	Torquay	9	13	11	+2	13
11	Braintree	8	13	18	-5	10
12	Truro City	8	11	4	+7	14
13	Farnham Town	8	11	10	+1	13
14	Hampton & Richmond	9	11	23	-12	8
15	Dagenham & Redbridge	9	9	7	+2	16
16	Chelmsford City	8	9	8	+1	10
17	Horsham	8	9	10	-1	10
18	Slough Town	8	9	21	-12	3
19	Hemel Hempstead Town	9	8	10	-2	10
20	Maidenhead	9	8	11	-3	10
21	AFC Totton	8	8	13	-5	10
22	Farnborough	8	6	11	-5	10
23	Walton & Hersham	8	4	24	-20	1
24	Ebbsfleet United	3	3	1	+2	5