Predictions / Football / England. National League - South / Dorking Wanderers vs Truro City

Prediction Audit: Dorking Wanderers vs Truro City Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dorking Wanderers Dorking Wanderers
Aug 31, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.21
0 1.39
xG Accuracy: 64%
Truro City Truro City

The model missed the final outcome (Dorking Wanderers win 1–0).

The model had projected Truro City at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Truro City Dorking Wanderers ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Dorking Wanderers higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Dorking Wanderers -12.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dorking Wanderers 31.0% 43.4% -12.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 25.2% +4.3 pp Aligned
Truro City 39.5% 31.4% +8.1 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Dorking Wanderers's win probability at 43.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 12.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the result was Dorking Wanderers win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Dorking Wanderers than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Truro City; match finished Dorking Wanderers

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Truro City by 12.4 percentage points (51.9% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 31, 2026 · 13:53 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dorking Wanderers 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Truro City 39.5%
    • xG · Dorking Wanderers 1.21 — Truro City 1.39
  2. Aug 31, 2026 · 13:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dorking Wanderers 2.14 · Draw 3.68 · Truro City 2.96
    • Implied 1X2 · Dorking Wanderers 43.4% · Draw 25.2% · Truro City 31.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 31, 2026 · 13:53 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Dorking Wanderers 2.14 · Draw 3.68 · Truro City 2.96
    • Implied 1X2 · Dorking Wanderers 43.4% · Draw 25.2% · Truro City 31.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 31, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Dorking Wanderers win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 13/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 25, 2026 · 02:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5400492

Closing Odds 2.14
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dorking Wanderers win · Dorking Wanderers 1–0 Truro City
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: National League - South
  • Fixture: Dorking Wanderers vs Truro City
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-31 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
  • xG (showing): Dorking Wanderers 1.21 — Truro City 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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National League - South National League - South — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Maidstone Utd 9 6 1 2 19
2 Weston-super-Mare 9 5 2 2 17
3 Dagenham & Redbridge 9 5 1 3 16
4 Salisbury 9 4 3 2 15
5 Billericay Town 9 4 3 2 15
6 Tonbridge Angels 9 4 2 3 14
7 Truro City 8 4 2 2 14
8 Dover 9 4 2 3 14
9 Dorking Wanderers 9 3 4 2 13
10 Torquay 9 3 4 2 13
11 Farnham Town 8 4 1 3 13
12 Folkestone Invicta 8 3 3 2 12
13 Chesham United 9 3 1 5 10
14 Chelmsford City 8 1 7 0 10
15 Horsham 8 2 4 2 10
16 Hemel Hempstead Town 9 2 4 3 10
17 Maidenhead 9 2 4 3 10
18 Braintree 8 3 1 4 10
19 AFC Totton 8 3 1 4 10
20 Farnborough 8 3 1 4 10
21 Hampton & Richmond 9 2 2 5 8
22 Ebbsfleet United 3 1 2 0 5
23 Slough Town 8 1 0 7 3
24 Walton & Hersham 8 0 1 7 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tonbridge Angels 9 18 9 +9 14
2 Dorking Wanderers 9 18 13 +5 13
3 Billericay Town 9 18 14 +4 15
4 Maidstone Utd 9 17 9 +8 19
5 Weston-super-Mare 9 16 7 +9 17
6 Salisbury 9 16 7 +9 15
7 Chesham United 9 16 15 +1 10
8 Folkestone Invicta 8 15 9 +6 12
9 Dover 9 15 16 -1 14
10 Torquay 9 13 11 +2 13
11 Braintree 8 13 18 -5 10
12 Truro City 8 11 4 +7 14
13 Farnham Town 8 11 10 +1 13
14 Hampton & Richmond 9 11 23 -12 8
15 Dagenham & Redbridge 9 9 7 +2 16
16 Chelmsford City 8 9 8 +1 10
17 Horsham 8 9 10 -1 10
18 Slough Town 8 9 21 -12 3
19 Hemel Hempstead Town 9 8 10 -2 10
20 Maidenhead 9 8 11 -3 10
21 AFC Totton 8 8 13 -5 10
22 Farnborough 8 6 11 -5 10
23 Walton & Hersham 8 4 24 -20 1
24 Ebbsfleet United 3 3 1 +2 5
National League - South England. National League - South Predictions