The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Brackley Town at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Brackley Town Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brackley Town | 39.9% | 34.8% | +5.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 25.4% | +4.0 pp | Aligned |
| Scarborough Athletic | 30.6% | 39.7% | -9.2 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Scarborough Athletic's win probability at 39.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 30.6%, a difference of 9.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Scarborough Athletic. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Brackley Town; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Brackley Town by 9.2 percentage points (49.1% vs model 39.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:04 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Brackley Town 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Scarborough Athletic 30.6%
- xG · Brackley Town 1.40 — Scarborough Athletic 1.20
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:42 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Brackley Town 2.66 · Draw 3.64 · Scarborough Athletic 2.33
- Implied 1X2 · Brackley Town 34.8% · Draw 25.4% · Scarborough Athletic 39.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Brackley Town 2.66 · Draw 3.64 · Scarborough Athletic 2.33
- Implied 1X2 · Brackley Town 34.8% · Draw 25.4% · Scarborough Athletic 39.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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National League - North — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 2 | Oxford City | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Spalding United | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Hebburn Town | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 6 | South Shields | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 7 | Buxton | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | Bedford Town | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 9 | Chester | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Morecambe | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Merthyr Town | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 12 | King's Lynn Town | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 13 | Harborough Town | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 14 | Worksop Town | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 15 | Scarborough Athletic | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 16 | Chorley | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 17 | Marine | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 18 | AFC Telford United | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 19 | Hednesford Town | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 20 | Southport | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 21 | Brackley Town | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 22 | Radcliffe | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 23 | Darlington 1883 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 24 | Spennymoor Town | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 9 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 22 |
| 2 | Buxton | 9 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 16 |
| 3 | Oxford City | 9 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 19 |
| 4 | Hebburn Town | 9 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 17 |
| 5 | King's Lynn Town | 9 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 13 |
| 6 | Scarborough Athletic | 9 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Chorley | 9 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Spalding United | 9 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 17 |
| 9 | Morecambe | 9 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 13 |
| 10 | Bedford Town | 9 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Hednesford Town | 9 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 9 |
| 12 | Macclesfield | 9 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 18 |
| 13 | Merthyr Town | 9 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 13 |
| 14 | Southport | 9 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Darlington 1883 | 9 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 |
| 16 | Harborough Town | 9 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 17 | Marine | 9 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| 18 | Chester | 9 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 14 |
| 19 | South Shields | 8 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 17 |
| 20 | Worksop Town | 9 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 12 |
| 21 | Spennymoor Town | 9 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 6 |
| 22 | AFC Telford United | 9 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 23 | Radcliffe | 9 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 6 |
| 24 | Brackley Town | 8 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 8 |
